South Indian: TC 14S(DAMIEN) and TC 13S(FRANCISCO) update at 06/09UTC



ANIMATION: 10UTC. TC 14S ON THE RIGHT END AND TC 13S ON THE LEFT END

TC 14S(DAMIEN) SOUTH INDIAN/WESTERN AUSTRALIA
As of 06:00 UTC Feb 06, 2020:

Location: 17.1°S 119.5°E
Maximum Winds: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Gusts: 55 kt ( 100km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 993 mb
TPXS11 PGTW 060917
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DAMIEN)
B. 06/0830Z
C. 17.20S
D. 118.70E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .60 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET YIELDS A 2.5 AND PT A 3.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
RICHARDSON
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 119.1E.
06FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (DAMIEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
162 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND, AND
OBSCURING, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE MSI, SUPPORTED BY THE BROOME, AUSTRALIA RADAR LOOP AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
45 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PGTW AND APRF DVORAK FIX INTENSITIES OF
T3.0 (45 KTS). GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS, LOW
(10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE, MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT VERY FAVORABLE FOR
CONTINUED, POSSIBLY RAPID, INTENSIFICATION. TC 14S IS TRACKING ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). OVER THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS, THE STR WILL SHIFT EASTWARD, AND 14S WILL RESPOND BY
TURNING POLEWARD. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED AROUND TAU 48, JUST TO THE
WEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA. THROUGH TAU 36, SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION TO 95 KTS IS EXPECTED. AFTERWARD, LAND INTERACTION
AND LESS FAVORABLE VWS SHOULD SHOULD CAUSE DISSIPATION BY TAU 96.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT PRIOR TO
LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL, TWO CLUSTERS FORM IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST FAVORS THE CLUSTER TO THE WEST (WHICH
INCLUDES ECMWF, GFS, GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN, AND NAVGEM), WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FRANCISCO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

TC 13S(FRANCISCO) SOUTH INDIAN
As of 06:00 UTC Feb 06, 2020:
Location: 19.1°S 71.7°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb
TPXS10 PGTW 060919
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FRANCISCO)
B. 06/0830Z
C. 19.46S
D. 71.81E
E. FIVE/MET8
F. T1.5/2.0/W1.5/24HRS  STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CONVECTION LOCATED 115NM FROM
LLCC YIELDING A DT THAT IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY. MET YIELDS A
DT OF 2.0 AND PT A 1.5. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
RICHARDSON
JMV FILE:
1320020312 137S 643E  25
1320020318 140S 646E  25
1320020400 143S 649E  25
1320020406 146S 651E  25
1320020412 152S 657E  30
1320020418 158S 664E  35
1320020500 164S 672E  35
1320020506 169S 683E  40
1320020512 173S 694E  45
1320020518 176S 703E  40
1320020600 182S 710E  40
1320020606 191S 717E  35
NNNN
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 71.7E.
06FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
816 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)
APPEARS ELONGATED IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (AMSI),
PROVIDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE AMSI AND A
060426Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) IS DISPLACING THE DEEP CONVECTION ABOUT 125 NM TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH MULTI-
AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS). WITH STRONG (25+ KT) VWS,
ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE, THE ENVIRONMENT IS HOSTILE OVERALL. TC 13S IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. IN THE NEXT
12 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN POLEWARD IN RESPONSE TO A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUILDING TO THE SOUTH. THE UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD
IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, HOWEVER, A REMNANT CIRCULATION SHOULD TRACK
WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR BEYOND TAU 12.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE
TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM
BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 17 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DAMIEN)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN



TC 14S: WARNING 2: FORECAST TO REACH 95KNOTS(TOP CAT 2 US) IN 36H


TC 13S: WARNING 4. INTENSITY FORECAST TO FALL BELOW 35KT WITHIN 12H.


TC 14S: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE


TC 13S: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE


TC 14S: 02/06 0950UTC

Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Jeudi 6 Février 2020 à 14:50