South Indian Ocean: TC 07S( CHALANE) and two other Suspect Areas under watch, update 29/18UTC



29/18UTC. FROM LEFT TO RIGHT: TC 07S, INVEST 96S AND INVEST 93S. CLICK IF NECESSARY TO ANIMATE.
29/18UTC. FROM LEFT TO RIGHT: TC 07S, INVEST 96S AND INVEST 93S. CLICK IF NECESSARY TO ANIMATE.
2020 DEC 29 1915UTC #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
TC #07S #CHALANE
UPDATE
As of 18:00 UTC Dec 29, 2020:
Location: 19.7°S 37.7°E
Maximum Winds: 60 kt ( 110km/h)
Gusts: 75 kt ( 140km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 992 mb
INTENSIFYING
WARNING 11 WILL BE POSTED NEAR 29/2130UTC.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS.
-----------------------------------------
INVEST #93S
UPDATE
As of 18:00 UTC Dec 29, 2020:
Location: 11.9°S 86.5°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Gusts: 35 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
 THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
10.4S 90.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9S 86.5E, APPROXIMATELY 1130 KM WEST
OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
291551Z METOP-B 89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT DISORGANIZED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING
CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 290204Z ASCAT-A IMAGE SHOWS A
WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH MOSTLY 10 KNOT WINDS WITH 15-20 KNOT
WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. INVEST 93S IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE (15-
20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93S
WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS.
-------------------------------------
INVEST #96S
UPDATE
As of 18:00 UTC Dec 29, 2020:
Location: 10.4°S 70.5°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.4S
70.5E, APPROXIMATELY 395 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 291336Z SSMIS 91GHZ
SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT DISORGANIZED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A POORLY
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION IN
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLES. INVEST 96S IS IN A MODERATELY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WESTWARD AND POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT, STRONG TO MODERATE (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96S WILL SLOWLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD WITH LITTLE
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
LOW.
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau

INVEST 93S IS UP-GRADED TO MEDIUM WHEREAS INVEST 96S IS NOW ON THE MAP
INVEST 93S IS UP-GRADED TO MEDIUM WHEREAS INVEST 96S IS NOW ON THE MAP

INVEST 93S: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INVEST 93S: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

INVEST 96S: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INVEST 96S: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

29/1830UTC. Eumetsat. ENHANCED BY PH.
29/1830UTC. Eumetsat. ENHANCED BY PH.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mardi 29 Décembre 2020 à 23:36