South Indian: Invest 94S: development potential: Medium for the next 24h



CLICK TO ANIMATE: EPS(ECMWF)

WEATHER US
WEATHER US
INVEST 94S SOUTH INDIAN
As of 12:00 UTC Jan 19, 2020:
Location: 10.6°S 63.2°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 mb
ABIO10 PGTW 191330
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
9.0S 64.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.6S 63.2E APPROXIMATELY 590 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 191109Z SSMIS 85GHZ IMAGE DEPICT FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER
A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE (10-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C) ARE
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT INVEST 94S
INTENSIFYING AS IT TRACKS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM.
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01/19 06UTC: GFS ENSEMBLE


 
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Dimanche 19 Janvier 2020 à 18:40