South Indian: Invest 91S now HIGH for the next 24h. South Pacific: Invest 90P: MEDIUM



INVEST 91S SOUTH WEST OF DIÉGO GARCIA AND INVEST 90P OVER THE NORTHERN CORAL SEA.

CIRA
CIRA
INVEST 91S SOUTH INDIAN
As of 00:00 UTC Apr 01, 2020:
Location: 13.3°S 70.1°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb

ABIO10 PGTW 010330
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.4S 69.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.3S 70.1E, APPROXIMATELY 325
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 312315Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
CONSOLIDATING CIRCULATION WITH DEEP, FLARING CONVECTION ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. 91S IS CURRENTLY IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD AND
WESTWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND
LOW (<15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 91S WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY WHILE TRACKING
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 010300) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

INVEST 90P SOUTH PACIFIC
As of 00:00 UTC Apr 01, 2020:
Location: 9.4°S 153.8°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb

ABPW10 PGTW 010100
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.7S 153.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4S 153.8E, APPROXIMATELY 400
NM EAST OF PORT MORESBY. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 311951Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD CIRCULATION
WITH SCATTERED, FLARING CONVECTION. 90P IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, LOW (<15 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90P WILL TRACK GENERALLY
SOUTHEASTWARD WITH CONTINUING INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

 

INVEST 91S UP-GRADED TO HIGH. INVEST 90P: UP-GRADED TO MEDIUM.

JTWC
JTWC

 

INVEST 91S: FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE.


INVEST 90P: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE.


01/00UTC

Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mercredi 1 Avril 2020 à 07:15