South Indian: 15/06utc updates on Invest 90S and Invest 99S, 99S may intensify significantly after 72hours and threaten Madagascar



15/06UTC. INVEST 90S IS STILL HIGH WHEREAS INVEST 99S IS STILL MEDIUM FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
15/06UTC. INVEST 90S IS STILL HIGH WHEREAS INVEST 99S IS STILL MEDIUM FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
INVEST 90S: LOCATED AT 15/06UTC APPRX 420KM SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS.
INVEST 99S: LOCATED AT 15/06UTC APPRX 1215KM NORTH NORTHEAST OF RODRIGUES ISLAND.
2021 JAN 15 0830UTC
INVEST #90S #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
UPDATE/TCFA RE-ISSUED
As of 06:00 UTC Jan 15, 2021:
Location: 15.3°S 94.7°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt ( 55km/h)
Gusts: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 mb
HIGH
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
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INVEST #99S #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
UPDATE
As of 06:00 UTC Jan 15, 2021:
Location: 11.2°S 70.4°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Gusts: 30 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb
MEDIUM
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS

Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau

INVEST 90S: MODELS DO AGREE ON A GENERAL SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK WITH A POSSIBLE RECURVE WESTWARDS AT LONG RANGE.
INVEST 90S: MODELS DO AGREE ON A GENERAL SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK WITH A POSSIBLE RECURVE WESTWARDS AT LONG RANGE.

INVEST 90S: HWRF REMAINS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE FOR THIS SYSTEM AFTER 84H.
INVEST 90S: HWRF REMAINS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE FOR THIS SYSTEM AFTER 84H.

INVEST 99S: GFS CONTINUES TO HINT AT A STRONG INTENSIFICATION AFTER 72H OFF THE COAST OF MADAGASCAR.
INVEST 99S: GFS CONTINUES TO HINT AT A STRONG INTENSIFICATION AFTER 72H OFF THE COAST OF MADAGASCAR.

INVEST 99S: ECMWF AND GFS ARE PRETTY CLOSE TRACK-WISE AND AS FAR AS THE INTENSITY TREND IS CONCERNED.
INVEST 99S: ECMWF AND GFS ARE PRETTY CLOSE TRACK-WISE AND AS FAR AS THE INTENSITY TREND IS CONCERNED.

INVEST 99S: NGX AND HWRF ARE WELL ABOVE THE PACK INTENSITY-WISE.
INVEST 99S: NGX AND HWRF ARE WELL ABOVE THE PACK INTENSITY-WISE.

15/08UTC. THE TWO CENTERS  ARE 2680KM APART.
15/08UTC. THE TWO CENTERS ARE 2680KM APART.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Vendredi 15 Janvier 2021 à 13:11