SOUTH INDIAN: Smap(Nasa) indicates 22S(MARIAN) is probably a strong CAT1(US). 27/15utc update


22S(MARIAN). 27/1153UTC. SMAP(NASA) READ 10MINUTE WINDS OF 69KNOTS=79KNOTS(1 MINUTE). THE OVERPASS WAS NOT AVAILABLE AT WARNING TIME AND SUGGESTS THE CYCLONE IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN ESTIMATED AT 12TU BY THE JTWC.


22S(MARIAN). 27/1153UTC. SMAP SATELLITE (NASA) READ 10MINUTE WINDS OF 69KNOTS=79KNOTS(1 MINUTE). THE OVERPASS WAS NOT AVAILABLE AT WARNING TIME AND SUGGESTS THE CYCLONE IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN ESTIMATED AT 12TU BY THE JTWC.
22S(MARIAN). 27/1153UTC. SMAP SATELLITE (NASA) READ 10MINUTE WINDS OF 69KNOTS=79KNOTS(1 MINUTE). THE OVERPASS WAS NOT AVAILABLE AT WARNING TIME AND SUGGESTS THE CYCLONE IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN ESTIMATED AT 12TU BY THE JTWC.
2021 FEB 27 15UTC #SOUTHERNHEMISPHERE
TC #22S  #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN #WESTERNAUSTRALIA
WARNING 4
As of 12:00 UTC Feb 27, 2021:
Location: 16.2°S 93.3°E
Maximum Winds: 65 kt (120km/h)
Gusts: 80 kt ( 150km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 979 mb
CATEGORY US : 1
INTENSIFYING
LOCATED AT 27/12UTC APPROXIMATELY 590 KM SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 19 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
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INVEST #99P  #SOUTHPACIFICOCEAN #CORALSEA
UPDATE
As of 12:00 UTC Feb 27, 2021:
Location: 15.7°S 150.3°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 mb
LOCATED AT 27/12UTC APPROXIMATELY 500 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA.
CURRENT POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS: LOW.
 
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
 Météo974
M974World
Cyclone Class 4
 Cheers,PH.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

22S(MARIAN). WARNING 4 ISSUED AT 27/15UTC. TC 22S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF A COMPLEX RIDGE PATTERN EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) OVER THE JAVA SEA, TO A SMALL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED WELL TO THE SOUTH. THE ENVIRONMENT IS RELATIVELY FAVORABLE WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) EASTERLY WIND SHEAR, MODERATE EQUATORWARD AND WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29C) SSTS. OVER THE NEXT 36  HOURS, TC 22S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST,  WHILE STEADILY SLOWING AS THE STR TO THE SOUTH STRENGTHENS. BETWEEN 36H AND 48H THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY QUASI- STATIONARY AS THE STR TO THE SOUTH REACHES ITS MAXIMUM STRENGTH AND  MOVES TO A POSITION DUE SOUTH OF THE TC. BY 72H, THE STR TO THE  SOUTH BEGINS TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES AHEAD OF  AN APPROACHING MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH, ALLOWING FOR A STRONGER NER  TO RESUME THE DOMINATE STEERING ROLE, PUSHING TC 22S ONTO AN  ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTERLY TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE  FORECAST PERIOD. TC 22S WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 36  HOURS, REACHING A PEAK OF 80 KNOTS/US CAT1 AS WIND SHEAR DECREASES AND THE UPPER- LEVEL OUTFLOW IMPROVES DUE TO EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF A POINT SOURCE  OVER TOP OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER THE SYSTEM TURNS SOUTHEASTWARD, SSTS  WILL BEGIN TO COOL AND THE OUTFLOW PATTERN BECOMES SLIGHTLY LESS  FAVORABLE, LEADING TO A STEADY WEAKENING TREND THROUGH 120H.
22S(MARIAN). WARNING 4 ISSUED AT 27/15UTC. TC 22S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF A COMPLEX RIDGE PATTERN EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) OVER THE JAVA SEA, TO A SMALL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED WELL TO THE SOUTH. THE ENVIRONMENT IS RELATIVELY FAVORABLE WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) EASTERLY WIND SHEAR, MODERATE EQUATORWARD AND WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29C) SSTS. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, TC 22S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST, WHILE STEADILY SLOWING AS THE STR TO THE SOUTH STRENGTHENS. BETWEEN 36H AND 48H THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY QUASI- STATIONARY AS THE STR TO THE SOUTH REACHES ITS MAXIMUM STRENGTH AND MOVES TO A POSITION DUE SOUTH OF THE TC. BY 72H, THE STR TO THE SOUTH BEGINS TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH, ALLOWING FOR A STRONGER NER TO RESUME THE DOMINATE STEERING ROLE, PUSHING TC 22S ONTO AN ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTERLY TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 22S WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, REACHING A PEAK OF 80 KNOTS/US CAT1 AS WIND SHEAR DECREASES AND THE UPPER- LEVEL OUTFLOW IMPROVES DUE TO EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF A POINT SOURCE OVER TOP OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER THE SYSTEM TURNS SOUTHEASTWARD, SSTS WILL BEGIN TO COOL AND THE OUTFLOW PATTERN BECOMES SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE, LEADING TO A STEADY WEAKENING TREND THROUGH 120H.

22S(MARIAN). NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 36H, AND  BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNCERTAIN THEREAFTER AS MODELS DISPLAY  SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE SHIFT IN THE STEERING  MECHANISM AROUND 48H. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES ON THE  SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH 48H, THEN JUST  EQUATORWARD OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 120H. HOWEVER,  IN LIGHT OF THE UNCERTAINTY PRESENT IN THE GUIDANCE, THERE IS  OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
22S(MARIAN). NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 36H, AND BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNCERTAIN THEREAFTER AS MODELS DISPLAY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE SHIFT IN THE STEERING MECHANISM AROUND 48H. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH 48H, THEN JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 120H. HOWEVER, IN LIGHT OF THE UNCERTAINTY PRESENT IN THE GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.

 

22S(MARIAN). 27/1040UTC. WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE   WHICH THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST QUADRANTS.
22S(MARIAN). 27/1040UTC. WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WHICH THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST QUADRANTS.

22S(MARIAN). 27/0956UTC. DMSP VISIBLE DEPICTING A BANDING EYE.
22S(MARIAN). 27/0956UTC. DMSP VISIBLE DEPICTING A BANDING EYE.

22S(MARIAN). WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT ON THE CYCLONE MAINLY AT THE HIGHER LEVELS. CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude :   12.3 m/s (23.8knots) Direction :   84.0 deg. Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates : unfavourable over 24h.
22S(MARIAN). WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT ON THE CYCLONE MAINLY AT THE HIGHER LEVELS. CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 12.3 m/s (23.8knots) Direction : 84.0 deg. Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates : unfavourable over 24h.

27/12UTC. JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TC 22S(MARIAN). INVEST 99P REMAINS ON THE MAP AND REMAINS LOW FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS.
27/12UTC. JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TC 22S(MARIAN). INVEST 99P REMAINS ON THE MAP AND REMAINS LOW FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS.

INVEST 99P. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE SYSTEM WILL NOT DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 24H.
INVEST 99P. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE SYSTEM WILL NOT DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 24H.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Samedi 27 Février 2021 à 19:15