SOUTH INDIAN: 3 numbered systems by the JTWC, 12S(ELOISE), 13S and 14S, 22/03utc updates



21/2030UTC. THE JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURY WARNINGS ON 14S(NONAME) AND 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON 12S(ELOISE) AND 13S(NONAME). 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE PROVIDED FOR THE 3 SYSTEMS.
21/2030UTC. THE JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURY WARNINGS ON 14S(NONAME) AND 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON 12S(ELOISE) AND 13S(NONAME). 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE PROVIDED FOR THE 3 SYSTEMS.
2021 JAN 22 02UTC
TC #13S #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
As of 00:00 UTC Jan 22, 2021:
WARNING 3
Location: 13.3°S 97.5°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 997 mb
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
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TC #14S #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN #WESTERNAUSTRALIA
As of 00:00 UTC Jan 22, 2021:
WARNING 2
Location: 19.7°S 120.6°E
Maximum Winds: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Gusts: 50 kt ( 95km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 998 mb
INTENSIFYING
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
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TC #12S #ELOISE #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
As of 00:00 UTC Jan 22, 2021:
UPDATE
Location: 18.4°S 39.5°E
Maximum Winds: 60 kt ( 110km/h)
Gusts: 75 kt ( 140km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 990 mb
INTENSIFYING
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
M974World

13S. WARNING 3. IS SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE SOUTH IN A VERY WEAK  STEERING ENVIRONMENT.DUE TO THE HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, THERE IS LITTLE  PROSPECT OF NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION THROUGH 36H. DECREASING SHEAR AND INCREASING OUTFLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY TO A  PEAK OF 45 KNOTS FOR A SHORT TIME NEAR 96H, BEFORE INCREASING SHEAR  AND COOLER WATERS ONCE MORE TAKE THEIR TOLL AND WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
13S. WARNING 3. IS SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE SOUTH IN A VERY WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT.DUE TO THE HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, THERE IS LITTLE PROSPECT OF NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION THROUGH 36H. DECREASING SHEAR AND INCREASING OUTFLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 45 KNOTS FOR A SHORT TIME NEAR 96H, BEFORE INCREASING SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS ONCE MORE TAKE THEIR TOLL AND WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.

12S(ELOISE). WARNING 10( ISSUED AT 21/21UTC. WARNING 11 WILL BE ISSUED AT 22/09UTC). INTENSIFYING SYSTEM.FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWEST THROUGH DURATION OF  THE FORECAST PERIOD, ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER  SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST.   EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL SHORTLY BEFORE 23/06UTC JUST SOUTH  OF BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE.SHOULD BE  ABLE TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY, REACHING A PEAK OF 75 KNOTS JUST PRIOR TO  LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND  ULTIMATELY THE INTENSITY WILL FALL BELOW 35KNOTS BY 25/18UTC. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY  IN THE PEAK INTENSITY DUE TO THE LIMITED TIME REMAINING OVER WATER,  THE TIMING OF THE DECREASE OF THE CONVERGENT FLOW TO THE SOUTH, AND  THE DISRUPTION OF THE INFLOW FROM THE NORTH DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND  AFTER 22/18UTC.
12S(ELOISE). WARNING 10( ISSUED AT 21/21UTC. WARNING 11 WILL BE ISSUED AT 22/09UTC). INTENSIFYING SYSTEM.FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWEST THROUGH DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL SHORTLY BEFORE 23/06UTC JUST SOUTH OF BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE.SHOULD BE ABLE TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY, REACHING A PEAK OF 75 KNOTS JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND ULTIMATELY THE INTENSITY WILL FALL BELOW 35KNOTS BY 25/18UTC. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE PEAK INTENSITY DUE TO THE LIMITED TIME REMAINING OVER WATER, THE TIMING OF THE DECREASE OF THE CONVERGENT FLOW TO THE SOUTH, AND THE DISRUPTION OF THE INFLOW FROM THE NORTH DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND AFTER 22/18UTC.

14S.WARNING 2.ANIMATED RADAR DATA FROM THE BROOME AND  PORT HEDLAND RADARS INDICATED A VERY WEAK ROTATION CROSSING THE  SHORE NEAR SANDFIRE, AUSTRALIA, BUT THE SIGNATURE IS NOT CONCLUSIVE  AND THUS LENDS ONLY LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION.14S IS IN THE  PROCESS OF MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA AT  THE 220000Z HOUR, AND WILL CONTINUE TRACKING INLAND ALONG THE  WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE  EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY, BUT SLOWLY, WEAKEN OVER THE GREAT  SANDY DESERT AND BE BELOW 35KNOTS BY 23/12UTC, THOUGH  REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING INLAND  INTO WEST-CENTRAL AUSTRALIA.DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE  INITIAL POSITION, AND THE RESULTING POSSIBILITY OF A LONGER PERIOD  OF TIME OVER WATER, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.
14S.WARNING 2.ANIMATED RADAR DATA FROM THE BROOME AND PORT HEDLAND RADARS INDICATED A VERY WEAK ROTATION CROSSING THE SHORE NEAR SANDFIRE, AUSTRALIA, BUT THE SIGNATURE IS NOT CONCLUSIVE AND THUS LENDS ONLY LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION.14S IS IN THE PROCESS OF MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA AT THE 220000Z HOUR, AND WILL CONTINUE TRACKING INLAND ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY, BUT SLOWLY, WEAKEN OVER THE GREAT SANDY DESERT AND BE BELOW 35KNOTS BY 23/12UTC, THOUGH REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING INLAND INTO WEST-CENTRAL AUSTRALIA.DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION, AND THE RESULTING POSSIBILITY OF A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME OVER WATER, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.

21/2121UTC. MICROWAVE DEPICTED THE SHEARED SIGNATURE OF 13S.
21/2121UTC. MICROWAVE DEPICTED THE SHEARED SIGNATURE OF 13S.

21/2238UTC. MICROWAVE DEPICTING THE IMPROVING SIGNATURE OF 12S(ELOISE).
21/2238UTC. MICROWAVE DEPICTING THE IMPROVING SIGNATURE OF 12S(ELOISE).

14S(NONAME).22/0027UTC. ASCAT DEPICTED A POORLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM BUT WITH 45KNOTS WINDS OFF THE WESTERN AUSTRALIAN COAST.
14S(NONAME).22/0027UTC. ASCAT DEPICTED A POORLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM BUT WITH 45KNOTS WINDS OFF THE WESTERN AUSTRALIAN COAST.

13S. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH A WIDE SPREAD IN  POTENTIAL FORECAST SOLUTIONS. THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE REMAIN  OUTLIERS, WITH A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE  NAVGEM AND HWRF CONTINUE TO INDICATE A NEARLY STRAIGHT POLEWARD TRACK  INTO THE RIDGE, WHICH IS UNLIKELY. THE REMAINDER OF THE CONSENSUS  MEMBERS DEPICT A SOUTH, THEN SOUTWEST TO WEST TRACK SIGNIFICANT  DIFFERENCES IN ALONG-TRACK SPEED AND TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE TURN TO  THE WEST. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES JUST WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL  CONSENSUS AND NEAR THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.
13S. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH A WIDE SPREAD IN POTENTIAL FORECAST SOLUTIONS. THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE REMAIN OUTLIERS, WITH A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NAVGEM AND HWRF CONTINUE TO INDICATE A NEARLY STRAIGHT POLEWARD TRACK INTO THE RIDGE, WHICH IS UNLIKELY. THE REMAINDER OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS DEPICT A SOUTH, THEN SOUTWEST TO WEST TRACK SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN ALONG-TRACK SPEED AND TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE TURN TO THE WEST. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES JUST WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND NEAR THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.


12S(ELOISE). NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH VERY  LOW SPREAD(BELOW 100KM) THROUGH 72H.
12S(ELOISE). NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH VERY LOW SPREAD(BELOW 100KM) THROUGH 72H.


14S. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD  AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO, BUT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE  INITIAL POSITION, AND THE RESULTING POSSIBILITY OF A LONGER PERIOD  OF TIME OVER WATER, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.
14S. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO, BUT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION, AND THE RESULTING POSSIBILITY OF A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME OVER WATER, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Vendredi 22 Janvier 2021 à 07:20