SOUTH INDIAN: 22S(MARIAN) peaked at 105knots/US CAT 3 and has undergone an eye-wall replacement cycle, 01/03utc update


22S(MARIAN). 01/0245UTC. DUE TO THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE, ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WEAKENING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM STILL RETAINS A 55KM ROUND EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. IF NEEDED CLICK ON THE IMAGERY TO ANIMATE IT.


22S(MARIAN). 01/0245UTC. DUE TO THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE, ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED  SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WEAKENING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH  WARMING CLOUD TOPS. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM STILL RETAINS A 55KM ROUND  EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. IF NEEDED CLICK ON THE IMAGERY TO ANIMATE IT.
22S(MARIAN). 01/0245UTC. DUE TO THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE, ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WEAKENING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM STILL RETAINS A 55KM ROUND EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. IF NEEDED CLICK ON THE IMAGERY TO ANIMATE IT.
2021 MAR 01 03UTC #SOUTHERNHEMISPHERE
TC #22S  #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN #WESTERNAUSTRALIA
WARNING 7
As of 00:00 UTC Mar 01, 2021:
Location: 17.8°S 90.4°E
Maximum Winds: 90 kt (165km/h)
Gusts: 110 kt ( 205km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 960 mb
CATEGORY US : 2
LOCATED AT 01/03UTC APPROXIMATELY 940 KM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 09 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS

Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
 Météo974
M974World
Cyclone Class 4
 Cheers,PH.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

22S(MARIAN). WARNING 7 ISSUED AT 01/03UTC.  TC 22S HAS SLOWED AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD  ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE  (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH 12H. AFTER 12H, A  DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH WILL DEEPEN AND WEAKEN THE STR,  WHICH WILL RESULT IN A SLOW OR QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK MOTION THROUGH  36H. DUE TO THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE(ERC) AND POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO UPWELL COOLER  WATER, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST THROUGH 36H. THE CURRENT FORECAST MAINTAINS THE INTENSITY AT 90 KNOTS THROUGH  12H IN THE EVENT THE SYSTEM RE-STRENGTHENS AFTER ERC. AFTER 12H, COOLER SST VALUES AND UPWELLING COOLER WATER SHOULD LEAD TO A  STEADY WEAKENING TREND. AFTER 36H, THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL  COMPLETELY ERODE THE STR AND THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE  EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW BETWEEN  THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE  NORTH. TC MARIAN WILL WEAKEN STEADILY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE  FORECAST DUE TO COOLER SST (26-25C) VALUES, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND  SHEAR AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT.
22S(MARIAN). WARNING 7 ISSUED AT 01/03UTC. TC 22S HAS SLOWED AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH 12H. AFTER 12H, A DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH WILL DEEPEN AND WEAKEN THE STR, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A SLOW OR QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK MOTION THROUGH 36H. DUE TO THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE(ERC) AND POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO UPWELL COOLER WATER, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST THROUGH 36H. THE CURRENT FORECAST MAINTAINS THE INTENSITY AT 90 KNOTS THROUGH 12H IN THE EVENT THE SYSTEM RE-STRENGTHENS AFTER ERC. AFTER 12H, COOLER SST VALUES AND UPWELLING COOLER WATER SHOULD LEAD TO A STEADY WEAKENING TREND. AFTER 36H, THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL COMPLETELY ERODE THE STR AND THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. TC MARIAN WILL WEAKEN STEADILY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DUE TO COOLER SST (26-25C) VALUES, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT.

22S(MARIAN). OVERALL, THERE IS MODERATE UNCERTAINTY  IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT  AROUND 24H AND DIVERGING NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AFTER 72H  WITH A 315KM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT 120H.
22S(MARIAN). OVERALL, THERE IS MODERATE UNCERTAINTY IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AROUND 24H AND DIVERGING NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AFTER 72H WITH A 315KM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT 120H.

22S(MARIAN). BASED ON PREVIOUS MICROWAVE IMAGERY TO INCLUDE THE 28/0741UTC AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE AND THE  28/1058UTC SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE, TC 22S IS UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL  REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC). A 28/2210UTC SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE  SHOWS THAT THE INNER EYEWALL HAS MOSTLY ERODED WITHIN AN OBLONG  OUTER EYEWALL DOMINATING.
22S(MARIAN). BASED ON PREVIOUS MICROWAVE IMAGERY TO INCLUDE THE 28/0741UTC AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE AND THE 28/1058UTC SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE, TC 22S IS UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC). A 28/2210UTC SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE INNER EYEWALL HAS MOSTLY ERODED WITHIN AN OBLONG OUTER EYEWALL DOMINATING.

22S(MARIAN). 01/0039UTC.  THE INNER EYEWALL HAS ERODED WITHIN AN OBLONG  OUTER EYEWALL DOMINATING.
22S(MARIAN). 01/0039UTC. THE INNER EYEWALL HAS ERODED WITHIN AN OBLONG OUTER EYEWALL DOMINATING.


22S(MARIAN). 01/0013UTC. DMSP VISIBLE.
22S(MARIAN). 01/0013UTC. DMSP VISIBLE.

22S(MARIAN). 28/2042UTC. DMSP NIGHT VISIBLE.
22S(MARIAN). 28/2042UTC. DMSP NIGHT VISIBLE.

22S(MARIAN). 28/1745UTC. NPP NIGHT VISIBLE.
22S(MARIAN). 28/1745UTC. NPP NIGHT VISIBLE.

22S(MARIAN). CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 3.0 m/s ( 5.9 kts) Direction :   59.0 deg Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates: UNFAVOURABLE OVER 24H
22S(MARIAN). CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 3.0 m/s ( 5.9 kts) Direction : 59.0 deg Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates: UNFAVOURABLE OVER 24H

01/03UTC.
01/03UTC.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Lundi 1 Mars 2021 à 07:25