SHEM: 13S(FRANCISCO) intensifying near Madagascar, 15P(UESI) and 94S updates at 14/00UTC



TC 13S: ANIMATION. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING CLOSE TO THE MALAGASY COASTLINE.

CIMSS/US
CIMSS/US
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE 15P(UESI) SOUTH PACIFIC
As of 00:00 UTC Feb 14, 2020:

Location: 32.8°S 158.5°E
Maximum Winds: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 983 mb

TPPS10 PGTW 140019
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI)
B. 13/2350Z
C. 32.74S
D. 158.52E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. ST2.5/2.5
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. HEBERT POTEAT METHOD
YIELDS A ST OF 2.5.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
MARTIN
ABPW10 PGTW 131200
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 15P) IS LOCATED NEAR
28.8S 160.4E, APPROXIMATELY 400 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BRISBANE,
AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
WELL DEFINED, EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION, HOWEVER, A 130652Z
91GHZ SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS ALL ASSOCIATED CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER
THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. A 130950Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN
ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD WITH 50 TO 55 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED
UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW VISIBLE AT THE 500 MB LEVEL. SSTS ARE
CURRENTLY AT 24-25C. THIS SYSTEM IS BEING ASSESSED AS SUBTROPICAL IN
NATURE AND GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 50 TO 55 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 979 MB. DUE TO THE SUBTROPICAL
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED POOR ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS LOW.
     (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.

TC 13S( FRANCISCO) SOUTH INDIAN
As of 00:00 UTC Feb 14, 2020:
Location: 18.6°S 49.8°E
Maximum Winds: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Gusts: 50 kt ( 95km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 mb

TPXS10 PGTW 140006
A. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FRANCISCO)
B. 13/2330Z
C. 18.57S
D. 49.84E
E. FIVE/MET8
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .55 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET/PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
 MARTIN
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 18.5S 49.8E.
13FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (FRANCISCO), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY
141 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. AVAILABLE
METEOROLOGICAL DATA SUPPORTS THE REGENERATION OF TC 13S, THEREFORE
JTWC HAS RESUMED WARNINGS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS LOW LEVEL BANDS WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OBSCURED BY DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ANIMATED EIR
LOOP AND A TIMELY, DIRECT 131754Z ASCAT-B PASS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS PLACED ABOVE MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KTS, PGTW) AND T1.5 (25 KTS, FMEE AND KNES)
DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF 40-45 KNOT WINDS PRESENT IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT IMAGE. TC 13S IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND MODERATE
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT. TC 13S WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF
50 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 24 AT WHICH TIME IT WILL MAKE LANDFALL SOUTH OF
TOAMASINA, MADAGASCAR. LAND INTERACTION WITH RUGGED TERRAIN AND
DIMINISHING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL CAUSE TC 13S TO BEGIN
DISSIPATION OVER LAND BY TAU 36 AND COMPLETE DISSIPATION OVER LAND
BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
GENERAL SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AND LANDFALL TIMING, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE OVERALL JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z AND
142100Z.//
NNNN

INVEST 94S SOUTH INDIAN
As of 00:00 UTC Feb 14, 2020:
Location: 15.4°S 74.7°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 mb

TPXS11 PGTW 140055 COR
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94S (SE OF DIEGO GARCIA)
B. 13/2345Z
C. 15.28S
D. 74.65E
E. FIVE/MET8
F. T1.0/1.0  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET/PT AGREE. DBO DT. COR FOR LAT/LONG.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
MARTIN

ABIO10 PGTW 132100
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.8S 75.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 75.0E, APPROXIMATELY 476
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)
PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST. A 131409Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE FURTHER DEPICTS DISORGANIZED
LOW LEVEL TURNING WITH AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE
SOUTH. TIMELY 131613Z ASCAT-B DATA REVEAL 30 KNOT WINDS IN THE AREA
OF CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLC. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS GENERALLY
POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.


 

15P: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE


13S: WARNING 5. FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AND MAKE LANDFALL NEAR VATOMANDRY NEAR 14/18UTC


15P: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE


 

94S: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE


02/13 2115UTC

Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Vendredi 14 Février 2020 à 06:30

Nouveau commentaire :