Overland TC 21S, Invest 96P and Invest 91S: updates at 13/03UTC



13/04UTC ANIMATION OVER 12H.


OVERLAND TC 21S: 13/00UTC POSITION

OVERLAND TC 21S  SOUTH INDIAN
As of 00:00 UTC Mar 12, 2020:
Location: 22.7°S 114.6°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb

TPXS11 PGTW 130323
A. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (NW AUSTRALIA)
B. 13/0250Z
C. 23.23S
D. 114.31E
E. THREE/HMWRI8
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE
DUE TO LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
 RHOADES

INVEST 96P SOUTH PACIFIC
As of 00:00 UTC Mar 13, 2020:
Location: 16.1°S 149.7°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt ( 55km/h)
Gusts: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 999 mb

TPPS10 PGTW 130330
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 96P (NE AUSTRALIA)
B. 13/0250Z
C. 17.97S
D. 151.85E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO
WEAK TO CLASSIFY.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
RHOADES
ABPW10 PGTW 121530
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.7S 147.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.5S 148.8E, APPROXIMATELY 86
NM NORTHWEST OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY, RADAR IMAGERY AND A 121129Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A VERY BROAD, ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC) WITH A CONSOLIDATING CIRCULATION CENTER. EXTENSIVE DEEP
CONVECTION IS BUILDING ALONG THE ELONGATED LLC AXIS. A 121129Z METOP-
B ASCAT PASS REVEALS 30 TO 35 KNOT STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS RUNNING ALONG
EITHER SIDE OF THE VERY ELONGATED, NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED LLC.
96P IS CURRENTLY IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH NEAR RADIAL
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND
WARM (30 TO 31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96P WILL TRACK GENERALLY EASTWARD WHILE
REMAINING BROAD FOR THE NEXT 18 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE CONSOLIDATING AND
TURNING TO A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 121500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.


INVEST 91S SOUTH INDIAN
As of 00:00 UTC Mar 13, 2020:
Location: 15.0°S 52.9°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt ( 55km/h)
Gusts: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb

TPXS10 PGTW 130326
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91S (E OF MADAGASCAR)
B. 13/0245Z
C. 14.48S
D. 52.39E
E. FIVE/MET8
F. T2.0/2.0  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. DBO DT
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   13/0002Z  13.78S  52.93E  SSMS
RHOADES
ABIO10 PGTW 130400
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
AT 14.0S 52.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0S 52.9E, APPROXIMATELY 415 NM
NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 130002Z 91 GHZ SSMIS IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING CIRCULATION
WITH DEEP CONVECTION AND FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. INVEST 91S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT,
WARM (28-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW (10-15 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 91S WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD AND CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
HIGH. SEE REF B (WTXS PGTW 130330) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

TC 21S: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE


INVEST 96P: 12/06UTC POSITION


 

INVEST 96P: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE


INVEST 91S: 12/06 POSITION


INVEST 91S: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE


13/03UTC


13/00UTC

Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Vendredi 13 Mars 2020 à 09:00