Matmo/Bulbul(23W) cat 2, Nakri(25W) cat1 and TS Halong(24W): updates



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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC


TS 24W: CURRENT INTENSITY: 60KTS
TS 24W: CURRENT INTENSITY: 60KTS
WDPN31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 24W (HALONG) WARNING NR
024//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 419
NM NORTHEAST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 24 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 081011Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A WEAKENING
CONVECTIVE BANDING ASSOCIATED WITH A RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION,
LENDING ONLY FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
(25 TO 30 KNOTS) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY
CONTINUED, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 60 KNOTS HEDGED ON THE LOW SIDE OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5-4.5 (55-77 KNOTS) AND A 080833Z SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 62 KNOTS. TS 24W IS TRACKING WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).         
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS HALONG WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND GRADUALLY
TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD BY TAU 12. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE
UNFAVORABLE WITH INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS, LEADING TO RAPID
WEAKENING. EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) WILL BEGIN AT TAU 12 AS
TS 24W BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. BY TAU 36 THE
SYSTEM WILL COMPLETE ETT AND WEAKEN TO 35 KNOTS. NUMERICAL MODELS
ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK.//
NNNN

TY 25W: CURRENT INTENSITY: 65KTS
TY 25W: CURRENT INTENSITY: 65KTS
WDPN32 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (NAKRI) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 25W (NAKRI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 291 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 081200Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX
AND 081035Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS
CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND AUTOMATED
INTENSITY ESTIMATES. TY 25W HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS WHILE TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
STEERING RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM MAINLAND SOUTHEAST ASIA. STRONG
WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER (29-30C) HAVE
ENABLED TY 25W TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS DESPITE
STRONG (20-25 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.        
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 25W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING STEERING
RIDGE TO THE NORTH. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY
IN THE NEAR-TERM AS PERSISTENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSETS THE
FAVORABLE INFLUENCES OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM ALONG-TRACK
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, THE ONGOING IMPACT OF THE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY INDUCE SOME WEAKENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL
TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO, BUT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD, PARTICULAR
WITH RESPECT TO TRACK SPEED, THROUGH TAU 72. NOTABLY, HOWEVER, THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS HAS REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN LOCATION FOR
THE PAST TWO FORECAST CYCLES. THE CURRENT JTWC FORECAST LIES WITHIN THE
MAJORITY MODEL GROUPING NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK, WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE GIVEN NOTED MODEL SPREAD.  
   C. TY 25W WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INLAND AFTER TAU 72. MODEL
GUIDANCE GENERALLY INDICATES PERSISTENT WESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION OF THE WEAKENED LOW-LEVEL CENTER DURING THIS PERIOD.//
NNNN

TC 23W: CURRENT INTENSITY: 85KTS
TC 23W: CURRENT INTENSITY: 85KTS
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 88.1E.
08NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM
SOUTH OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 081200Z PGTW
SATELLITE FIX AND 081037Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY IS
CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF RECENT MULTI-AGENCY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES. TC 23W HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCES OF MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND PASSAGE
OVER VERY WARM WATER (29-30C). THE 081037Z SSMIS IMAGERY INDICATES A
WIDE DISPLACEMENT BETWEEN THE LOW-LEVEL PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION,
TO THE EAST, AND THE UPPER-LEVEL PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION, TO THE
WEST, INDICATIVE OF A STRONG WESTWARD TILT, AND CONSISTENT WITH THE
OBSERVED EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PATTERN. THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE SITUATED OVER MAINLAND SOUTHEAST ASIA. POLEWARD MOTION
ALONG THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
36 TO 48 HOURS, CARRYING THE SYSTEM TO LANDFALL NEAR THE BORDER
BETWEEN INDIA AND BANGLADESH AROUND TAU 24 AND INLAND THEREAFTER.
THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AFTER TAU 24 DUE TO PASSAGE OVER LAND
AND STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE LOWER-LEVEL FLOW AS THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES
BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 72, CAUSING THE CIRCULATION TO DRIFT EASTWARD
AND POSSIBLY EQUATORWARD OVER LAND. SLIGHT WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED
PRIOR TO LANDFALL AS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSETS THE
IMPACTS OF A SUPPORTIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN ALOFT AND PASSAGE OVER WARM
WATER. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT THROUGH
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OBSERVED FORWARD TRACK SPEED HAS
INCREASED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, AS HAVE MODEL FORECAST
TRACK SPEEDS. CONSEQUENTLY, THE CURRENT JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS A BIT
FASTER, AND THE PROJECTED LANDFALL TIME A BIT EARLIER, THAN REFLECTED
IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
081200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND
091500Z.//
NNNN

25W: 08/1330UTC
25W: 08/1330UTC

23W: 08/1219UTC
23W: 08/1219UTC


23W: 08/1011UTC
23W: 08/1011UTC

24W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
24W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

25W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
25W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

23W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
23W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Vendredi 8 Novembre 2019 à 17:40