Kalmaegi(27W): Final Warning. Fung-Wong(28W): update at 20/21UTC

Météo974

M974World

WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TD KALMAEGI (27W)
As of 18:00 UTC Nov 20, 2019:
Location: 14.1°N 119.2°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 13.8N 118.8E.
20NOV19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
109 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN STRIPPED OF
DEEP CONVECTION AFTER IT EXITED FROM THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF LUZON
INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS), PARTLY EXPOSING THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE LLC FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 25KTS BASED ON THE RAPID RATE OF DECAY AND EXTRAPOLATED
FROM NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. ANALYSES INDICATE THAT TD 27W HAS
DRIFTED INTO THE UNUSUALLY COOLER WATERS OF THE SCS (<28C),
EXACERBATED BY AN ONGOING COLD/DRY NORTHERLY WIND SURGE. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS ABATED SLIGHTLY TO (15-20KTS); HOWEVER, THE
RELATIVE VWS IS HIGHER DUE TO THE STORM MOTION BEING DIAMETRICALLY
OPPOSITE TO UPPER WIND FLOW. FURTHERMORE, OUTFLOW HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
DIMINISHED DUE TO THE SUBSIDING EFFECT OF TS 28W, APPROXIMATELY
500NM TO THE NORTHEAST. THE OVERALL NEGATIVE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DEGRADE THE SYSTEM LEADING TO
DISSIPATION BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY
THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 201800Z IS 10 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 28W (FUNG-WONG)
WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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JMV FILE
2719111018 135N1351E  15
2719111100 135N1347E  15
2719111106 131N1337E  15
2719111112 125N1330E  15
2719111118 121N1327E  20
2719111200 120N1324E  20
2719111206 119N1319E  20
2719111212 119N1314E  20
2719111218 121N1304E  25
2719111300 126N1292E  30
2719111306 129N1287E  30
2719111312 132N1284E  30
2719111318 138N1281E  30
2719111400 144N1273E  30
2719111406 148N1271E  30
2719111412 155N1267E  30
2719111418 157N1266E  30
2719111500 159N1265E  30
2719111506 160N1264E  30
2719111512 160N1262E  30
2719111518 159N1261E  35
2719111600 157N1261E  35
2719111606 156N1260E  35
2719111612 155N1259E  35
2719111618 155N1256E  35
2719111700 158N1252E  45
2719111706 165N1248E  50
2719111712 169N1245E  50
2719111718 173N1239E  50
2719111800 177N1235E  60
2719111806 182N1233E  65
2719111812 188N1230E  75
2719111818 190N1226E  80
2719111900 190N1225E  80
2719111906 191N1226E  75
2719111912 188N1225E  75
2719111918 186N1222E  65
2719112000 174N1216E  55
2719112006 163N1208E  40
2719112012 151N1200E  35
2719112018 141N1192E  25
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TS FUNG-WONG (28W)
As of 18:00 UTC Nov 20, 2019:
Location: 20.0°N 125.4°E
Maximum Winds: 55 kt ( 100 km/h)
Gusts: 70 kt ( 130km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 990 mb
WDPN31 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 28W (FUNG-WONG) WARNING
NR 005//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 28W (FUNG-WONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AS EVIDENCED BY
DEEPENING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND RAIN BANDS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY BECOMING MORE CONSOLIDATED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A RAGGED BUT DISCERNIBLE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) FEATURE IN THE 201658Z AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT
LINED UP WITH THE PARTLY EXPOSED LLC IN THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 55KTS IS BASED ON THE CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
T3.5/55KTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD. ANALYSES INDICATE A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15-25KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY A VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT 28-29C ARE CONDUCIVE. TS 28W IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS FUNG-WONG WILL CONTINUE ON ITS TRACK UNDER THE STR. AFTER
TAU 24, IT WILL TURN MORE POLEWARD AS IT CRESTS THE STR AXIS THEN
ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WILL FAVOR A BIT MORE INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 60KTS BY TAU 12.
AFTERWARD, A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE VWS (40KTS+) UNDER THE JET
STREAM WILL PRIMARILY CAUSE ITS RAPID DECAY, LEADING TO DISSIPATION
BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH AFUM AS THE
SOLE, ALBEIT MINIMAL, LEFT OUTLIER, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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