06/0220UTC.
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE/SOUTH PACIFIC: INVEST 99P. ADDED TO THE JTWC MAP AT 05/2030UTC. ADVISORY(ABPW) BELOW ISSUED AT 06/06UTC.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.4S 176.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.5S 174.4E, APPROXIMATELY 405 KM NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 060157Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A WEEKLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE 99P WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRAVELS SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A WEEKLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE 99P WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRAVELS SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA.
ECMWF ENSEMBLE.
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE/CORAL SEA: INVEST 90P. THIS SYSTEM IS VERY WEAK AT THE MOMENT AND IS NOT OVER THE JTWC MAP YET. KEEPING TABS ON IT.
INVEST 90P: ECMWF HINTS AT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA AT MEDIUM RANGE.
