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Invest 98W on the map// Invest 94B off the map, 21/0830utc



JTWC ISSUED WARNING 32/FINAL ON 28W(RAI) AT 20/21UTC. INVEST 94B IS NOW REMOVED FROM THE MAP WHEREAS INVEST 98W WAS ADDED TO THE MAP AT 21/02UTC.
JTWC ISSUED WARNING 32/FINAL ON 28W(RAI) AT 20/21UTC. INVEST 94B IS NOW REMOVED FROM THE MAP WHEREAS INVEST 98W WAS ADDED TO THE MAP AT 21/02UTC.

21/0710UTC.
21/0710UTC.


WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC: INVEST 98W. ADVISORY(ABPW) ISSUED AT 21/06UTC. CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO GET IT ENLARGED.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED  NEAR 6.4N 140.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.7N 140.4E, APPROXIMATELY 645  KM EAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND  A 210342Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION OVER  A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS  GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST  EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND  WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT  98W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, AND ARE SPLIT ON DEVELOPMENT,  WITH THE GFS CONTINUING TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED  SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL  PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE  DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24  HOURS REMAINS LOW.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.4N 140.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.7N 140.4E, APPROXIMATELY 645 KM EAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 210342Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION OVER A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT 98W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, AND ARE SPLIT ON DEVELOPMENT, WITH THE GFS CONTINUING TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.


GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT 98W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, AND ARE SPLIT ON DEVELOPMENT, WITH THE GFS CONTINUING TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE.
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT 98W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, AND ARE SPLIT ON DEVELOPMENT, WITH THE GFS CONTINUING TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE.

GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT 98W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, AND ARE SPLIT ON DEVELOPMENT, WITH THE GFS CONTINUING TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE.
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT 98W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, AND ARE SPLIT ON DEVELOPMENT, WITH THE GFS CONTINUING TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE.

NORTH INDIAN OCEAN/BAY OF BENGAL: INVEST 94B.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED  NEAR 6.0N 96.0E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE  DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.0N 96.0E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


GFS AT +48H. CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO GET IT ENLARGED.


Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Tuesday, December 21st 2021 à 07:40