Menu

Invest 97W and Invest 98W: up-dates at 29/12utc



CLICK ON THE IMAGERIES BELOW TO GET THEM ENLARGED.



WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC: SOUTH CHINA SEA: INVEST 97W. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT UP-DATED AT 29/11UTC.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED  NEAR 15.1N 116.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 116.5E, APPROXIMATELY  505 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ENHANCED INFRARED  SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 290535Z AMSR2 89GHZ PASS DEPICT A BROAD LOW  LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH CONVECTION EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN  AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES OF THE LLC, CHARACTERISTIC OF A MONSOON  DEPRESSION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS  FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY; STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW  (10- 15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE  TEMPERATURES. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE BUT GLOBAL  MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 97W WILL GENERALLY TRACK  NORTHWESTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO DEVELOP.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE  WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS  ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A  SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 116.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 116.5E, APPROXIMATELY 505 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 290535Z AMSR2 89GHZ PASS DEPICT A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH CONVECTION EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES OF THE LLC, CHARACTERISTIC OF A MONSOON DEPRESSION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY; STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10- 15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE BUT GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 97W WILL GENERALLY TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO DEVELOP. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
WP, 97, 2022062818,154N, 1166E,  20,  999
WP, 97, 2022062900,154N, 1170E,  20,  999
WP, 97, 2022062906,160N, 1162E,  20,  999
WP, 97, 2022062912,155N, 1155E,  20,  999
WP, 97, 2022062918,151N, 1148E,  20, 1007



WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC: PHILIPPINE SEA: INVEST 98W. ADVISORY(ABPW) ISSUED AT 29/11UTC.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR  16.7N 130.5E, APPROXIMATELY 1090 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA, JAPAN.  ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 290801Z SSMIS 91GHZ PASS  DEPICTS FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING OFFSET TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH  OF A BROAD, ILL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL  ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY;  MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND  SHEAR, AND WARM (30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN  TIGHT AGREEMENT THAT 98W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO  DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.   MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS  ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS  ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A  SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.7N 130.5E, APPROXIMATELY 1090 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA, JAPAN. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 290801Z SSMIS 91GHZ PASS DEPICTS FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING OFFSET TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF A BROAD, ILL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY; MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THAT 98W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
WP, 98, 2022062812,123N, 1309E,  15, 1007
WP, 98, 2022062818,140N, 1306E,  15, 1006
WP, 98, 2022062900,152N, 1305E,  15, 1006
WP, 98, 2022062906,166N, 1304E,  15, 1006
WP, 98, 2022062912,174N, 1298E,  15, 1006


Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Wednesday, June 29th 2022 à 23:05