Invest 96W: slow development, Invest 97W: updated position



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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

INVEST 96W
As of 06:00 UTC Oct 16, 2019:

Location: 17.6°N 131.5°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb
ABPW10 PGTW 160600
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 16.6N 133.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 131.7E, APPROXIMATELY
640 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE OF A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 160415Z
AMSR2 36 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, WEAK LOW-LEVEL BANDING ELSEWHERE AND NO DEFINED
LLCC. A PARTIAL 160409Z ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWS SOME 15-20 KNOT WINDS
OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT WITH 10-15 KNOT NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE BUT NO EVIDENCE OF A CLOSED CIRCULATION AT THE
SURFACE YET. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (<15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAIR
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
TOWARD LUZON WITH SLOW INTENSIFICATION DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
EXTENSIVE NORTHEAST SURGE FLOW TO THE WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 152100) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
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INVEST 97W
As of 06:00 UTC Oct 16, 2019:
Location: 3.0°N 176.9°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb

INVEST 96W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INVEST 96W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

16/0730UTC
16/0730UTC

16/00UTC
16/00UTC

16/00UTC
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Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mercredi 16 Octobre 2019 à 11:52