Invest 96W and Invest 91S: LOW



Météo974

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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TY KAMMURI (29W)
As of 06:00 UTC Nov 28, 2019:
Location: 12.8°N 138.5°E
Maximum Winds: 75 kt ( 140km/h)
Gusts: 90 kt ( 170km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 976 mb
CATEGORY US: 1


INVEST 95W
As of 06:00 UTC Nov 28, 2019:

Location: 5.3°N 164.1°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb

INVEST 96W
As of 06:00 UTC Nov 28, 2019:

Location: 18.4°N 142.4°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb
ABPW10 PGTW 280900
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
 B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
18.4N 142.4E, APPROXIMATELY 331 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A POTENTIAL, WEAK LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) EMBEDDED IN THE BROADER CIRCULATION OF TYPHOON 29W
WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD, ISOLATED FROM THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TYPHOON 29W. A 280357Z AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ
SHOWS A SIMILAR PICTURE WITH DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD THE LLC WITH
FRAGMENTED, PERIPHERAL DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE BANDING
FROM TYPHOON 29W. 96W IS CURRENTLY IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY OVERHEAD CONVERGENCE FROM
TYPHOON 29W'S OUTFLOW. 96W IS EXPERIENCING UNFAVORABLE (25 TO 30
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (27 TO 28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96W WILL
TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWARD BEFORE GETTING CAUGHT IN BETWEEN TWO
SUBTROPICAL RIDGES WITHOUT MUCH INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.


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SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SOUTH PACIFIC

Remnants of TC Rita (01P)
As of 06:00 UTC Nov 28, 2019:

Location: 15.6°S 170.3°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb

SOUTH INDIAN

INVEST 91S
As of 06:00 UTC Nov 28, 2019:

Location: 8.0°S 54.7°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb
ABIO10 PGTW 280330
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7N
55E, APPROXIMATELY 142 NM SOUTH OF MAHE, SEYCHELLES. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 272207Z 91GHZ AMSR2
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD, RAGGED, AND PARTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION OFFSET SOUTHWESTWARD OF
THE LLC. ANALYSES INDICATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE (5-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, MARGINAL DIVERGENCE ALOFT,
AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MAY REACH
WARNING CRITERIA IN ABOUT 3 DAYS AS IT GENERALLY TRACKS
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD MADAGASCAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
 

Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Jeudi 28 Novembre 2019 à 15:11