Invest 96S: winds may increase south of the weak circulation. The area is medium



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INVEST 96S  SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SOUTH INDIAN
As of 00:00 UTC Dec 18, 2019:
Location: 13.7°S 70.1°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb
ABIO10 PGTW 172000
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.4S 69.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.6S 70.3E, APPROXIMATELY 398
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 171225Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD
AREA WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE PERIPHERY AND CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE ENVIRONMENT FOR
96S IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING OVERALL
SYSTEM MOTION AND SHOW STRENGTHENING WINDS TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
 


Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mercredi 18 Décembre 2019 à 08:37