Invest 96S: models show little development next 96h



INVEST 96S  SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SOUTH INDIAN
As of 00:00 UTC Dec 16, 2019:

Location: 10.9°S 68.8°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 mb
ABIO10 PGTW 161100
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.0S 69.1E, APPROXIMATELY 292 NM SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 160425Z MHS METOP-A IMAGE
DEPICT A DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH BROAD AREAS OF WEAK
CONVECTION. THE ENVIRONMENT FOR 96S IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH LOW (<15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW,
AND WARM (27-28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING LITTLE DEVELOPMENT FOR 96S. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

TRACK GUIDANCE



Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Lundi 16 Décembre 2019 à 14:16