Invest 93W east of Guam: LOW. Mitag(19W): JMV File. Peak intensity was 90kts(cat 2)



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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TS MITAG(19W)
As of 06:00 UTC Oct 04, 2019:
Location: 39.0°N 137.7°E
Maximum Winds: 50 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 mb
JMV FILE

1919092518 118N1471E  15
1919092600 121N1461E  20
1919092606 123N1451E  20
1919092612 128N1437E  20
1919092618 134N1415E  20
1919092700 138N1391E  20
1919092706 141N1370E  25
1919092712 144N1358E  30
1919092718 150N1343E  35
1919092800 161N1322E  40
1919092806 170N1306E  45
1919092812 178N1289E  50
1919092812 178N1289E  50
1919092818 181N1276E  50
1919092818 181N1276E  50
1919092900 185N1263E  55
1919092906 193N1256E  55
1919092912 201N1249E  65
1919092918 208N1237E  65
1919093000 217N1230E  70
1919093006 228N1230E  80
1919093012 246N1229E  90
1919093018 260N1223E  85
1919100100 272N1221E  75
1919100106 286N1223E  65
1919100112 300N1224E  60
1919100118 307N1229E  55
1919100200 320N1239E  50
1919100206 333N1247E  45
1919100212 343N1261E  40
1919100218 356N1277E  40
1919100300 375N1296E  40
1919100306 380N1318E  40
1919100312 384N1331E  40
1919100318 392N1344E  50
1919100400 391N1361E  50
1919100406 390N1377E  50
NNNN
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INVEST 93W
As of 00:00 UTC Oct 04, 2019:

Location: 14.0°N 162.7°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
ABPW10 PGTW 040600
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
 B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
14.0N 165.9E, APPROXIMATELY 1242 NM EAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A POORLY ORGANIZED REGION OF
FLARING CONVECTION. A 040532Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE PARTIAL
IMAGE REVEALS THE CONVECTION IS STILL STRUGGLING TO COALESCE. INVEST
93W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY
WARM (31 TO 32 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN  GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND
INTENSIFY, REACHING WARNING CRITERIA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

 

19W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
19W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

INVEST 93W: TRACK GUIDANCE
INVEST 93W: TRACK GUIDANCE

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04/00UTC

04/00UTC
04/00UTC
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Vendredi 4 Octobre 2019 à 14:53