Invest 91B //Invest 91S// 0806utc

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.1N 93.4E, APPROXIMATELY 332 NM SOUTH OF PORT BLAIR. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL 071535 ASCAT-C PASS REVEAL WEAK LOWER LEVEL TURNING WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE WEST OF AN ASSESSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15KT) VWS, AND VERY WARM (31-32C) SST. AN ENHANCED CONVECTIVE ENVELOPE AND WESTERLY WIND BURSTS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL IS CONDUCIVE FOR TC DEVELOPMENT. ANALYSIS OF THE GFS 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY FORECAST SHOWS A STRONG SIGNATURE BECOMING WELL DEFINED BY TAU 48. ALTHOUGH THE FIRST LOOK AT THIS LLC SHOWS A WEAK CIRCULATION, GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 91B WILL QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE AS IT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS BEFORE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 8 TO 13 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

ALTHOUGH THE FIRST LOOK AT THIS LLC SHOWS A WEAK CIRCULATION, GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 91B WILL QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE AS IT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS BEFORE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.