JTWC IS ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON 93S.
WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC: TS 25W(MALOU). WARNING 25/FINAL ISSUED AT 29/09UTC
PEAK INTENSITY WAS 85KNOTS/CAT 2
2521102200 79N1455E 15
2521102206 87N1446E 15
2521102212 96N1438E 15
2521102218 105N1431E 15
2521102300 108N1424E 20
2521102306 110N1416E 20
2521102312 114N1410E 20
2521102318 118N1404E 20
2521102400 122N1400E 30
2521102406 128N1397E 30
2521102412 134N1397E 30
2521102418 148N1392E 35
2521102500 167N1385E 35
2521102506 178N1382E 40
2521102512 184N1380E 35
2521102518 189N1381E 40
2521102600 191N1383E 45
2521102606 195N1387E 50
2521102612 200N1390E 55
2521102618 204N1390E 55
2521102700 207N1391E 60
2521102706 213N1394E 65
2521102712 218N1397E 70
2521102718 226N1400E 80
2521102800 237N1407E 80
2521102806 248N1415E 85
2521102812 263N1425E 85
2521102818 281N1435E 75
2521102900 300N1445E 75
2521102906 320N1467E 60
NNNN
2521102200 79N1455E 15
2521102206 87N1446E 15
2521102212 96N1438E 15
2521102218 105N1431E 15
2521102300 108N1424E 20
2521102306 110N1416E 20
2521102312 114N1410E 20
2521102318 118N1404E 20
2521102400 122N1400E 30
2521102406 128N1397E 30
2521102412 134N1397E 30
2521102418 148N1392E 35
2521102500 167N1385E 35
2521102506 178N1382E 40
2521102512 184N1380E 35
2521102518 189N1381E 40
2521102600 191N1383E 45
2521102606 195N1387E 50
2521102612 200N1390E 55
2521102618 204N1390E 55
2521102700 207N1391E 60
2521102706 213N1394E 65
2521102712 218N1397E 70
2521102718 226N1400E 80
2521102800 237N1407E 80
2521102806 248N1415E 85
2521102812 263N1425E 85
2521102818 281N1435E 75
2521102900 300N1445E 75
2521102906 320N1467E 60
NNNN
WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC: INVEST 90W. UP-GRADED TO LOW AT 29/1930UTC- UP-DATE AT 30/06UTC
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.0N 150.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.4N 148.6E, APPROXIMATELY 700 KM SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 292046Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEALS BROAD DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SIDE OF A SHARP TROPICAL WAVE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITHIN THE AREA OF SHARPEST CYCLONIC TURNING WITHIN THE CUSP OF THE WAVE FEATURE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM TO BE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT INVEST 90W WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSIT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. HOWEVER, GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, SHOWING RAPID CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) AND SUBSEQUENT INTENSIFICATION, REACHING WARNING CRITERIA ON OR BEFORE 01/00Z IVO OF GUAM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE/SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: INVEST 93S. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED AT 29/21UTC
FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.8S 86.7E TO 12.8S 80.9E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 291810Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.0S 86.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 20KM/H. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.6S 86.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0S 86.6E, APPROXIMATELY 1575 KM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 291307Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEALS AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF AN ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A PARTIAL 291604Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS SHOWS THE EAST SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LLC WITH 20-25 KT WINDS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES INVEST 93S IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW SUPPORTED BY ANTICYCLONIC TURNING ALOFT AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93S WILL TRACK WESTWARD AND CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
ANIMATION: GFS FORECAST BAROMETRIC PRESSURE OVER THE NEXT 24HOURS FOR INVEST 93S
IF NEEDED CLICK TO ANIMATE.
INVEST 93S: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
30/0415UTC.
