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Invest 90W: Tropical Cyclone formation Alert. 05A, 24W, 23W: updates



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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TS HALONG(24W)
As of 00:00 UTC Nov 04, 2019:

Location: 17.1°N 153.5°E
Maximum Winds: 75 kt ( 140km/h)
Gusts: 90 kt ( 170km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 975 mb
CATEGORY US: 1

WDPN31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 24W (HALONG) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 24W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 458 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN, CNMI, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO DEEPEN AS IT MAINTAINED A RECURRING 10-
NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
THE EYE FEATURE, SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED FOR TILT AND LINED UP WITH A WELL-
DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 032054Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 75KTS IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T4.5/77KTS AND SATCON ESTIMATE OF 78KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH STRONG DUAL OUTFLOW, LOW (<15KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM SST (29-30C) AND FAVORABLE OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT VALUES. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST.    
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 24W WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK THROUGH TAU 36.
AFTERWARD, IT WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS AND TURN NORTHWARD THEN
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE STR AND BEGIN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES. THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS TO
A PEAK OF 110 KNOTS BY TAU 36 DUE TO IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO
THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF AFUM THAT
SHOWS A MORE WESTWARD SOLUTION. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THIS
PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST
OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET AFUM.   
   C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TY HALONG WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD AS IT TRACKS WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND
SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 120. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOW AFTER
TAU 96 AS IT ENCOUNTERS A STRONG, LOW-LEVEL MIDLATITUDE HIGH, WHICH
MAY TURN THE SYSTEM MORE POLEWARD. TY 24W WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO
INCREASING VWS AND COOLER SST, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM WILL STILL BE A
GALE FORCE COLD-CORE LOW AT TAU 120 WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD.
NUMERICAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 72, LENDING LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

INVEST 90W
As of 00:00 UTC Nov 04, 2019:

Location: 11.5°N 113.6°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb
WTPN22 PGTW 040330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 195 NM RADIUS OF 12.6N 114.7E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 040300Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 113.6E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
AT 11.5N 113.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 114.0E, APPROXIMATELY 320
NORTHWEST OF PUERTO PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 032238Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A FULLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE BANDING
OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND FLARING CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. A 040107Z ASCAT IMAGE REVEALS PRONOUNCED CIRCULATION
WITH 15-20KT WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (<15KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
NORTHEASTERLY SURGE FLOW IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA IS FORECAST TO
EXTEND TO WITHIN THE VICINITY OF 90W AND ACCELERATE THE WINDS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT TO ABOVE BASIN WARNING CRITERIA. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 18-24HRS IN ADDITION
TO THE APPROACH OF THE NORTHEASTERLY SURGE FLOW CULMINATING IN THE
SYSTEM REACHING WARNING CRITERIA. AS THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES, MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE BECOMING QUASI STATIONARY IN THE CENTRAL SOUTH
CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
050330Z.
//
NNNN
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NORTH INDIAN

TC MAHA(05A)
As of 00:00 UTC Nov 04, 2019:

Location: 18.1°N 65.0°E
Maximum Winds: 100 kt ( 185km/h)
Gusts: 125 kt ( 230km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 965 mb
CATEGORY US: 3

REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 18.2N 64.8E.
04NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (MAHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 377
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, OMAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A COMPACT MIDGET WITH A
10-NM PINHOLE EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE THAT LINED UP WELL WITH A DEFINED
MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 032111Z AMSR2 36GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF OBJECTIVE AND AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
T5.2-T5.5 AND REFLECTS A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LIMITED POLEWARD BUT ROBUST
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (05-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC
05A IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU 24, IT WILL TURN NORTHWARD THEN
ACCELRATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AS A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE DIGS IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND ERODES THE STR, MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE MUMBAI
PENINSULA AROUND TAU 78. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL ENHANCE
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 105KTS BY TAU 12; AFTERWARD,
INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG WESTERLIES WILL PRIMARILY
ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 45KTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL, THE
ADDITION OF LAND INTERACTION WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, LEADING
TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 120. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH AFUM AS THE NOTABLE LEFT OUTLIER FROM THE MID PORTION
ONWARD. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE  JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS
LAID JUST TO THE RIGHT OF AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS
AFTER TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 40 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z.//
NNNN

REMNANTS OF TD 23W
As of 00:00 UTC Nov 04, 2019:

Location: 13.5°N 94.3°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb
ABIO10 PGTW 031800
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (23W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.3N
96.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 95.4E, APPROXIMATELY 180 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT BLAIR, ANDAMAN AND NICOBAR ISLANDS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION
OVERHEAD. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND LOW
5-10 KNOTS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A 030343Z ASCAT DIRECT PASS
SHOWS A DISORGANIZED LLCC WITH SOME 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERIES. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ESTIMATED AT 29-30C ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING A SLOW-DEVELOPING SYSTEM NOT
REACHING BASIN WARNING CRITERIA OF 35 KNOTS UNTIL AFTER TAU 96. THE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE EASTERN COAST OF
INDIA AS IT CONSOLIDATES.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED
TO LOW.

 

TY 24W
TY 24W


TC 05A
TC 05A

INVEST 90W
INVEST 90W

TC 05A: 04/02UTC
TC 05A: 04/02UTC

TY 24W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TY 24W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE


24W: HWRF: 116KTS AT +48H
24W: HWRF: 116KTS AT +48H

TC 05A: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TC 05A: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

05A: HWRF: 104KTS AT +12H
05A: HWRF: 104KTS AT +12H

INVEST 90W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INVEST 90W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

90W: HWRF: 77KTS AT +96H
90W: HWRF: 77KTS AT +96H

INVEST 90W NOW HIGH
INVEST 90W NOW HIGH

04/0430UTC. CIRA
04/0430UTC. CIRA
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Lundi 4 Novembre 2019 à 07:42