Invest 90S is now TC 10S. A TCFA has been issued for Invest 99S, 16/00utc updates



THE JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS FOR TC 10S AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS FOR BOTH TC 10S AND INVEST 99S.
THE JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS FOR TC 10S AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS FOR BOTH TC 10S AND INVEST 99S.
INVEST #90S IS NOW TC 10S: LOCATED AT 16/00UTC APPRX 595KM SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS.
INVEST 99S: LOCATED AT 16/00UTC APPRX 875KM NORTH NORTHEAST OF RODRIGUES ISLAND.
2021 JAN 16 0235UTC
TC #10S #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
UPDATE
As of 00:00 UTC Jan 16, 2021:
Location: 16.9°S 93.3°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 mb
INTENSIFYING
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
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INVEST #99S #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
UPDATE/TCFA
As of 00:00 UTC Jan 16, 2021:
Location: 12.5°S 66.4°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt ( 55km/h)
Gusts: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 mb
HIGH
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS

Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau

TC 10S. WARNING 1 ISSUED AT 15/21UTC. PEAK INTENSITY OF 50KNOTS WAS FORECAST BY 17/18UTC
TC 10S. WARNING 1 ISSUED AT 15/21UTC. PEAK INTENSITY OF 50KNOTS WAS FORECAST BY 17/18UTC

INVEST 99S: TCFA ISSUED AT 15/21UTC. WARNNG 1 WILL BE ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS REACH 35KNOTS NEAR THE CENTER.
INVEST 99S: TCFA ISSUED AT 15/21UTC. WARNNG 1 WILL BE ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS REACH 35KNOTS NEAR THE CENTER.

10S. TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
10S. TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

INVEST 99S. MODELS ARE ON A TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A TRACK TOWARDS NORTHEAST MADAGASCAR. INTENSITY-WISE BOTH HWRF AND CTCX ARE SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE THE OTHERS WHEREAS GFS IS BECOMING MORE AGGRESSIVE.
INVEST 99S. MODELS ARE ON A TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A TRACK TOWARDS NORTHEAST MADAGASCAR. INTENSITY-WISE BOTH HWRF AND CTCX ARE SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE THE OTHERS WHEREAS GFS IS BECOMING MORE AGGRESSIVE.

16/0245UTC. THE TWO CENTERS ARE APPRX 2935KM APART.
16/0245UTC. THE TWO CENTERS ARE APPRX 2935KM APART.

15/18UTC.INVEST 99S: GFS TRACK IT WITH A LANDFALL WELL TO THE NORTH OF TOAMASINA.
15/18UTC.INVEST 99S: GFS TRACK IT WITH A LANDFALL WELL TO THE NORTH OF TOAMASINA.

15/18UTC.INVEST 99S: ECMWF TRACKS IT WITH A LANDFALL MUCH CLOSER TO TOAMASINA.
15/18UTC.INVEST 99S: ECMWF TRACKS IT WITH A LANDFALL MUCH CLOSER TO TOAMASINA.

16/00UTC
16/00UTC
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Samedi 16 Janvier 2021 à 07:15