THE JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS FOR TC 10S AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS FOR BOTH TC 10S AND INVEST 99S.
INVEST #90S IS NOW TC 10S: LOCATED AT 16/00UTC APPRX 595KM SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS.
INVEST 99S: LOCATED AT 16/00UTC APPRX 875KM NORTH NORTHEAST OF RODRIGUES ISLAND.
2021 JAN 16 0235UTC
TC #10S #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
UPDATE
As of 00:00 UTC Jan 16, 2021:
Location: 16.9°S 93.3°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 mb
INTENSIFYING
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
----------------------------------------------------------
INVEST #99S #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
UPDATE/TCFA
As of 00:00 UTC Jan 16, 2021:
Location: 12.5°S 66.4°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt ( 55km/h)
Gusts: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 mb
HIGH
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
INVEST 99S: LOCATED AT 16/00UTC APPRX 875KM NORTH NORTHEAST OF RODRIGUES ISLAND.
2021 JAN 16 0235UTC
TC #10S #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
UPDATE
As of 00:00 UTC Jan 16, 2021:
Location: 16.9°S 93.3°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 mb
INTENSIFYING
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
----------------------------------------------------------
INVEST #99S #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
UPDATE/TCFA
As of 00:00 UTC Jan 16, 2021:
Location: 12.5°S 66.4°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt ( 55km/h)
Gusts: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 mb
HIGH
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
TC 10S. WARNING 1 ISSUED AT 15/21UTC. PEAK INTENSITY OF 50KNOTS WAS FORECAST BY 17/18UTC
INVEST 99S: TCFA ISSUED AT 15/21UTC. WARNNG 1 WILL BE ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS REACH 35KNOTS NEAR THE CENTER.
10S. TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
INVEST 99S. MODELS ARE ON A TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A TRACK TOWARDS NORTHEAST MADAGASCAR. INTENSITY-WISE BOTH HWRF AND CTCX ARE SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE THE OTHERS WHEREAS GFS IS BECOMING MORE AGGRESSIVE.
16/0245UTC. THE TWO CENTERS ARE APPRX 2935KM APART.
15/18UTC.INVEST 99S: GFS TRACK IT WITH A LANDFALL WELL TO THE NORTH OF TOAMASINA.
15/18UTC.INVEST 99S: ECMWF TRACKS IT WITH A LANDFALL MUCH CLOSER TO TOAMASINA.
16/00UTC
