Invest 90P: Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert. Invest 94W, ex Fung-Wong(28W): updates



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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

ex TD Fung-Wong (28W)
As of 00:00 UTC Nov 23, 2019:

Location: 25.1°N 125.5°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1013 mb

INVEST 94W

As of 00:00 UTC Nov 23, 2019:
Location: 3.9°N 168.8°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 mb
ABPW10 PGTW 230600
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
 B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
4.2N 169.6E, APPROXIMATELY 279 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN. A
220724Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION. FURTHERMORE, A 220950Z ASCAT-B PASS
SUPPORTS THE LOCATION OF THIS BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH (20-25KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY
DECENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C).
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD. THE WIND FIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST 94W WILL INITIALLY BE ASYMMETRIC WITH
STRONGER WINDS TO THE NORTH DUE TO A TIGHTENED GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
CIRCULATION AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. GFS AND
NAVGEM DEPICT WINDS FULLY WRAPPING AROUND THE CIRCULATION BY  TAU
120.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

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SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SOUTH PACIFIC

INVEST 90P
As of 00:00 UTC Nov 23, 2019:

Location: 7.7°S 166.3°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 mb
WTPS21 PGTW 230330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.6S 166.0E TO 9.8S 169.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 230000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.7S 166.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P), PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.1S
163.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.7S 166.3E,  APPROXIMATELY 380 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING OVER A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT BY A 22229Z METOP-B 89GHZ SATELLITE
IMAGE. THE ENVIRONMENT PROVIDES FOR MODERATE DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM
(29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW TO MODERATE (10-20KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT DEVELOPMENT INTO WARNING STATUS IS LIKELY BY TAU 24.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
240330Z.//
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INVEST 90P: TROPCIAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
INVEST 90P: TROPCIAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT

23/03UTC
23/03UTC


INVEST 90P: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INVEST 90P: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

INVEST 90P: HWRF: 110KTS AT +66H
INVEST 90P: HWRF: 110KTS AT +66H

23/00UTC
23/00UTC

23/00UTC
23/00UTC
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Samedi 23 Novembre 2019 à 09:04