94S is now TC 21S , 96P upgraded to Medium, 91S update at 11/06UTC



TC 21S: INTENSITY FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR MINIMAL CYCLONE INTENSITY AT 35KNOTS.

TC 21S(94s) SOUTH INDIAN
As of 06:00 UTC Mar 11, 2020:
Location: 16.4°S 116.9°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 mb

TPXS10 PGTW 110638
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94S (S OF JAVA)
B. 11/0600Z
C. 16.32S
D. 116.90E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T1.0/1.5/S0.0/18HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .15 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF TOO WEAK. MET AND PT YIELD A 1.0.
DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
ELIAS
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 116.6E.
11MAR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (TWENTYONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
253 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION LOCATED OVERHEAD.
AN 110616Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A CLEARLY DEFINED
LLCC WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION DIRECTLY OVER THE LLCC AND
EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS SET WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS BASED ON AN 110152Z METOP-C DIRECT ASCAT PASS
WHICH SHOWS 35 KT WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM THE EAST, PLACING
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY. MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE EVALUATED AT T1.5 (25 KTS, PGTW/KNES), LOWER
THAN THE CURRENT INTENSITY. OVERALL, TC 21S IS TRANSITING THROUGH A
MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO
MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (29-30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). TC 21S IS TRACKING ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
UNDER ITS INFLUENCE, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING THE NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA COAST. AT THIS POINT,
INCREASING VWS VALUES AND LAND INTERACTION WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO
WEAKEN. HOWEVER, DUE TO HIGH SST PRIOR TO LANDFALL, TC 21S IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS A MARGINAL SYSTEM UNTIL FULL DISSIPATION BY TAU
48, IF NOT SOONER. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. OF
NOTE, GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MAINTAIN A MORE WESTWARD TRACK,
KEEPING THE SYSTEM OVER WATER THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST. HOWEVER,
DUE TO THE GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MAJORITY OF THE SOLUTIONS, THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z, 120300Z AND 120900Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 101600).//
NNNN

INVEST 96P SOUTH PACIFIC
As of 06:00 UTC Mar 11, 2020:
Location: 12.7°S 143.5°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.4S 139.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7S 142.8E, APPROXIMATELY
307 NM NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY, RADAR IMAGERY, AND A 102318Z METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT A BROAD, DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH AREAS
OF DEEP FLARING CONVECTION. 96P IS CURRENTLY OVER LAND AND SUPPORTED
BY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS OF LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE SURROUNDING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM (30 TO 31 CELSIUS) AND SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT IN THE EVENT THAT 96P CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD OVER
WATER. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96P WILL TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTENSIFY OVER WATER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

INVEST 91S SOUTH INDIAN
As of 06:00 UTC Mar 11, 2020:
Location: 15.3°S 54.3°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb




TC 21S: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE


HIMAWARI-8 AT 11/0830UTC

WINDY
WINDY

 

TC 21S: DMSP AT 11/0741UTC


TC 21S: DMSP AT 11/0741UTC


11/09UTC


11/00UTC

Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mercredi 11 Mars 2020 à 13:03