21W and 22W : cyclonic duo being monitored



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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TS  NEOGURI(21W)
As of 00:00 UTC Oct 19, 2019:

Location: 21.1°N 127.9°E
Maximum Winds: 55 kt ( 100km/h)
Gusts: 55 kt ( 130km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 995 mb
WDPN31 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 21W (NEOGURI) WARNING
NR 011//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 21W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 324 NM
SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A COMPACT MIDGET SYSTEM (95NM ACROSS) THAT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AND BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON WARM PIXELS
IN THE 182340Z INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE, ADJUSTED FOR SLAND, AND LINED
UP WITH WITH A NOTCH FEATURE IN THE 182246Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE
PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55KTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T3.5/55KTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT
IS OFFSET BY POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND THE STORM MOTION THAT IS IN-PHASE
WITH UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE ALSO
CONDUCIVE AT 28-29C, HOWEVER THIS IS TEMPERED BY A COLD DRY NORTHERLY
SURGE IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA. OVERALL, THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE; HOWEVER, THE EXTENDED
FORECAST ALONG TRACK SPEEDS WERE INCREASED.
   B. TS 21W WILL CONTINUE IN ITS CURRENT TRACK, STEERED BY THE STR,
AND WILL CREST THE STR AXIS BY TAU 12. AFTERWARD, IT WILL RECURVE
NORTHEASTWARD ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE STR AND GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE. THE OVERALL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, ENHANCED BY STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PREVAILING WESETRLIES,
WILL PROMOTE MODERATE INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 60KTS AT TAUS 12-
24. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE
THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 35KTS BY TAU 72.  THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT TO THIS TRACK WITH ECMWF THE NOTABLE OUTLIER
BRINGING THE VORTEX MORE WESTWARD AND SLOWER. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE
IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID JUST TO THE
EAST OF AND SLOWER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET ECMWF.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS 21W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACCELERATING
NORTHEASTWARD. CONCURRENTLY, IT WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION.
INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL DEGRADE THE SYSTEM TO 35KTS BY
TAU 96; HOWEVER, EXPECT THE INTENSITY TO INCREASE TO 40KTS AS IT GETS
EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND TRANSFORMS A COLD-CORE LOW WITH AN
EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY SPREAD
OUT AND DEVIATE IN ALONG-TRACK SPEEDS BEYOND TAU 72, LENDING LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

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TD 22W
As of 00:00 UTC Oct 19, 2019:
Location: 10.3°N 156.7°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt ( 55km/h)
Gusts: 40 kt ( 75km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
WDPN32 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO)
WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 722 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM,
HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH CONVECTION FOCUSED
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 182250Z
ASCAT-B DIRECT PASS OVER THE STORM SHOWING A CLOSED LLC. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE SAME ASCAT PASS WITH A WIDE
SWATH OF 30KT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LLC. THE STORM IS
INTENSIFYING AS THE LOW LEVELS CONSOLIDATE AND IT REMAINS IN A
MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
DECENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND FAVORABLE SSTS (29-30C). TD 22W IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.     
   A. THIS IS THE FIRST WARNING AND SETS THE INITIAL FORECAST
PHILOSPHY FOR THIS SYSTEM.
   B. THE STR WILL REMAIN AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AND DRIVE TD 22W WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH
TAU 48 BEFORE TURNING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. TD 22W WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO 65KTS BY TAU 72 AS ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE VWS (10-20 KTS) AND WARM
SSTS. NAVGEM IS AN OUTLIER ON THE NORTHERN/EASTERN SIDE OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE, THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS PLACED TO THE LEFT OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE IS A 225 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE AT TAU 72 LEADING TO FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 22W WILL CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD AND CONTINUE
TO INTENSIFY, REACHING 90KTS AS IT REACHES THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE MODEL SPREAD CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS THE FORECAST
PROGRESSES WITH AN ACROSS TRACK SPREAD OF 320 NM BY TAU 120. THE SAME
FORECAST REASONING APPLIED THROUGH TAU 72 PERSISTS FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE FORECAST.//
NNNN
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NORTH INDIAN

INVEST 97A
As of 18:00 UTC Oct 18, 2019:

Location: 11.6°N 68.6°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 mb
ABIO10 PGTW 181800
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.2N 68.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 812 NM SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, OMAN. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF
CONVECTION WITH NO DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER. A PARTIAL 181546Z
METOPA-A 89GHZ IMAGE FURTHER DEPICTS POCKETS OF WEAK CONVECTION TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 12Z BEST TRACK POSITION. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD, DIFFLUENT, SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS,
COUPLED WITH MARGINAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-20 KNOTS) DEPICT A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER WARM (29-30 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 97A WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS
WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24, HOWEVER THE WIND FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS DURING THIS TIME.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
 

21W: FORECAST PEAK INTENSITY OF 60KNOTS WITHIN 24H
21W: FORECAST PEAK INTENSITY OF 60KNOTS WITHIN 24H

22W: FORECAST TO REACH TYPHOON INTENSITY IN APPRX 72H
22W: FORECAST TO REACH TYPHOON INTENSITY IN APPRX 72H

21W: 19/0257UTC
21W: 19/0257UTC


22W: 19/00UTC
22W: 19/00UTC

 


21W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
21W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

22W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
22W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Samedi 19 Octobre 2019 à 07:07