21UTC: TC TREVOR(20P) :extreme rapid intensification, landfall close to Lockhart as a Cat 3 US, rapid intensication expected over the Gulf in 48hours


Warning 5/JTWC


Rapidly intensifying cyclone.
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
TC TREVOR(20P)
As of 18:00 UTC Mar 18, 2019:

Location: 12.9°S 144.6°E
Maximum Winds: 90 kt (170km/h)
Gusts: 110 kt ( 205km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 966 mb
INTENSIFYING

REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 144.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (TREVOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 802 NM EAST
OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 20P HAS UNDERGONE EXTREME RAPID
INTENSIFICATION (RI) OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS INCREASING FROM 35 KNOTS
TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS (A 55 KNOT INCREASE). ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WEIPA RADAR IMAGERY DEPICT
SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A COMPACT CORE WITH A 12NM EYE. TRACK
MOTION HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT ERRATIC OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, HOWEVER,
THERE IS EXCELLENT CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW; ABRF IS AT A T4.5
DUE TO CONSTRAINTS BUT ALSO MEASURED A DT5.0). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES RADIAL OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY THE WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH,
AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 20P IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THEN SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STR SHIFTS EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND REORIENTS AS A DEEP MIDLATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AND
HIGH UNCERTAINTY PRIMARILY DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE
TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEEDS. THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK FAVORS THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION AND THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE SOLUTION BUT IS POSITIONED SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. TC 20P IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT
CROSSES THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA BUT IS EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY OVER
THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA AFTER TAU 36. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
UNDERGO RI AFTER TAU 48 DUE TO VERY WARM SST (30-32C), HIGH OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT VALUES, FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
AFTER TAU 96, TC 20P WILL MAKE LANDFALL, TRACK INLAND AND STEADILY
WEAKEN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND 192100Z.//
NNNN

WARNING 5/JTWC
WARNING 5/JTWC



FORECAST LANDFALL AREA IN 12H LESS THAN 50KM SOUTH OF LOCKHART
FORECAST LANDFALL AREA IN 12H LESS THAN 50KM SOUTH OF LOCKHART

21UTC
21UTC

2030UTC
2030UTC

2013UTC
2013UTC


HWRF AT 12UTC: 132KT AT +102H
HWRF AT 12UTC: 132KT AT +102H

GFS AT 12UTC: 112KT AT +90H
GFS AT 12UTC: 112KT AT +90H


Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mardi 19 Mars 2019 à 01:28