21UTC: JOANINHA(22S), intensifying steadily and slowly approaching Rodrigues island


Warning 4/JTWC


WARNING 4/JTWC
WARNING 4/JTWC
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
TC JOANINHA(22S)
As of 18:00 UTC Mar 22, 2019:

Location: 15.0°S 62.4°E
Maximum Winds: 45 kt (85km/h)
Gusts: 55 kt ( 100km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 mb

REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 62.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 393 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVING DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 221738Z 89 GHZ MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE
WHICH SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION IS MAINLY LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE
LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. TC 22S IS
EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND HAS
EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE NEAR 29 DEGREES CELSIUS AND ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
A COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO ALLOW TC 22S TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS, REACHING AN INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS BY TAU 24. TC 22S IS
TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHWARD WHILE POSITIONED BETWEEN A NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE SOUTHWEST. TC 22S WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36.
BEYOND TAU 36, THE NER WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE AND
ALLOW TC 22S TO TRACK SOUTHWARD AND THEN ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 12, HOWEVER,
GUIDANCE SHARPLY DIVERGES AFTER THAT. BY TAU 72 THE MODEL SPREAD IS
NEARLY 255 NM AND BY TAU 120 THE SPREAD IS 305 NM. DUE TO THE WIDE
SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 19
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

20UTC: building convection and system getting better organized.
20UTC: building convection and system getting better organized.

18UTC
18UTC



Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Samedi 23 Mars 2019 à 02:18