15UTC: TC HALEH(17S) category 1 US, slow-moving, intensifying, possible peak as a category 4 in 48hours


Warning 6/JTWC


13UTC
13UTC
TC HALEH 17S
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
As of 12:00 UTC Mar 03, 2019:
Location: 15.6°S 73.7°E
Maximum Winds: 70 kt (130km/h)
Gusts: 85 kt (160km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 980 mb

REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 73.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (HALEH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 515 NM
SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
DEEP CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO TIGHTLY WRAP AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 031032Z 37GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH
SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS
IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF
T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES BASED ON THE RECENT IMPROVEMENT IN
THE DEEP CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC
17S IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS)
AND IS BENEFITING FROM EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT,
BETWEEN 29 AND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 17S IS TRACKING GENERALLY
SOUTHWARD WHILE ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
(NER) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 17S WILL MOVE ON A
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK TROUGH TAU 36. BEYOND TAU 36, A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTH WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING
FEATURE AND ALLOW TC 17S TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD. FAVORABLE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW TC 17S TO REACH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 60. BEYOND TAU 60, MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
LESS OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH A LOW ACROSS-TRACK SPREAD BUT A MODERATE
ALONG-TRACK SPREAD. HOWEVER, OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 29
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND 041500Z.//
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1155UTC
1155UTC

1155UTC
1155UTC

1354UTC
1354UTC


HWRF AT 06UTC: 116KT AT +66H
HWRF AT 06UTC: 116KT AT +66H

GFS AT 06UTC: 95KT AT +48H
GFS AT 06UTC: 95KT AT +48H


Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Dimanche 3 Mars 2019 à 19:54