15UTC: INVEST 96P has 45knots winds but is assessed as a subtropical system


Low chances of becoming a tropical cyclone


INVEST 96P
As of 12:00 UTC Apr 01, 2019:

Location: 23.1°S 161.5°W
Maximum Winds: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 mb
ABPW10 PGTW 010600
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
22.2S 164.4W, APPROXIMATELY 576 NM SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 044222Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE
DEPICT A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH CONVECTION ISOLATED
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. 96P IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
STRONG (25-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, IS
ON THE EQUATORWARD EDGE OF THE MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE, AND IS
EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(26-27 CELSIUS) ARE MARGINAL. FOR THOSE REASONS, 96P IS ASSESSED AS
A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT 96P WILL INTENSIFY
AND TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST, REMAINING AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
BEFORE TRANSITIONING INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

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Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Lundi 1 Avril 2019 à 19:55