15UTC: INVEST 91S is likely to intensify next 24hours north of Madagascar


TCFA/JTWC issued at 1430UTC


https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.meteo974.re/
INVEST 91S
As of 12:00 UTC Apr 22, 2019:
Location: 9.7°S 51.3°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt ( 55km/h)
Gusts: 40 kt ( 75km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 mb
WTXS21 PGTW 221430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.7S 52.2E TO 10.6S 45.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 221400Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.7S 51.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.7S 53.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.7S 51.3E, APPROXIMATELY 735
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 221241Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DEEP, CONVECTIVE BANDING TO
THE WEST. A 220531Z ASCAT-C IMAGE SHOWS A SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH
25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
DEPICTS LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KNOTS) WITH
ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES TO THE
SOUTH. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 CELSIUS) REMAIN SUPPORTIVE
FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WESTWARD TO WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
231430Z.//
NNNN


 


 



Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Lundi 22 Avril 2019 à 22:33