12S(ELOISE) should be making landfall near Antalaha by 12hours, forecast to intensify significantly once over the MOZ Channel


12S(ELOISE) IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN
MADAGASCAR BY 12H THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN TO 30 KNOTS AS IT TRANSITS
ACROSS THE RUGGED ISLAND TERRAIN BEFORE EXITING OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL IN APPRX 54H. THE WARM WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL WILL
ENABLE TC 12S TO STEADILY RE-INTENSIFY TO 70 KNOTS/CATEGORY 1 US PRIOR TO MAKING
FINAL LANDFALL NEAR MAXIXE IN SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE.


WARNING 5.12S(ELOISE) IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN  MADAGASCAR BY 12H THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN TO 30 KNOTS AS IT TRANSITS  ACROSS THE RUGGED ISLAND TERRAIN BEFORE EXITING OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE  CHANNEL IN APPRX 54H. THE WARM WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL WILL  ENABLE TC 12S TO STEADILY RE-INTENSIFY TO 70 KNOTS/CATEGORY 1 US PRIOR TO MAKING  FINAL LANDFALL NEAR MAXIXE IN SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE.
WARNING 5.12S(ELOISE) IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN MADAGASCAR BY 12H THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN TO 30 KNOTS AS IT TRANSITS ACROSS THE RUGGED ISLAND TERRAIN BEFORE EXITING OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IN APPRX 54H. THE WARM WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL WILL ENABLE TC 12S TO STEADILY RE-INTENSIFY TO 70 KNOTS/CATEGORY 1 US PRIOR TO MAKING FINAL LANDFALL NEAR MAXIXE IN SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE.
2021 JAN 19 09UTC
TC #12S #ELOISE #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
As of 06:00 UTC Jan 19, 2021:
WARNING 5
Location: 14.5°S 51.7°E
Maximum Winds: 50 kt ( 95km/h)
Gusts: 65 kt ( 120km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 mb
INTENSIFYING
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
 Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
M974World

19/06UTC. FORECAST LANDFALL NEAR ANTALAHA BY12HOURS.
19/06UTC. FORECAST LANDFALL NEAR ANTALAHA BY12HOURS.

19/0608UTC. METOP-B PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE WITH A SWATH OF 45- 50 KT WINDS SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
19/0608UTC. METOP-B PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE WITH A SWATH OF 45- 50 KT WINDS SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.

19/06UTC. SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED  LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING  AROUND THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS.IMAGERY COURTESY OF MTOTEC.
19/06UTC. SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS.IMAGERY COURTESY OF MTOTEC.

19/0606UTC. BASED ON THE MSI AND A  190608Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE  INITIAL POSITION.
19/0606UTC. BASED ON THE MSI AND A 190608Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION.

NUMERICAL MODEL  GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.  OF NOTE, THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE TRACKERS MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM ALONG  A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERN TRACK THAN THE OTHER CONSENSUS  MODELS. THE 19/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE SOLUTION SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT  AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, LENDING OVERALL  HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE  MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. OF NOTE, THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE TRACKERS MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM ALONG A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERN TRACK THAN THE OTHER CONSENSUS MODELS. THE 19/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE SOLUTION SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, LENDING OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE RE-INTENSIFICATION TREND OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IS WELL DEPICTED BY THE MODELS.
THE RE-INTENSIFICATION TREND OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IS WELL DEPICTED BY THE MODELS.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mardi 19 Janvier 2021 à 13:35