09UTC: TC HALEH(17S) category 1 US is weakening, forecast to be fully extratropical in 48hours


Warning 21/JTWC


0730UTC GOMS-2 ENHANCED BY METEO974
0730UTC GOMS-2 ENHANCED BY METEO974
TC HALEH 17S
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
As of 06:00 UTC Mar 07, 2019:
Location: 26.2°S 67.7°E
Maximum Winds: 65 kt (120km/h)
Gusts: 80 kt (150km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 mb
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 26.7S 67.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (HALEH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 680 NM
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS
PERSISTED, CONTINUING TO PUSH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION SOUTHEASTWARD.
DESPITE THE SHEAR, SIGNIFICANT LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO WRAP INTO THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FROM ALL QUADRANTS. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE ANIMATED MSI AND A 070409Z PARTIAL METOP-A
ASCAT PASS WHICH WAS ALSO USED TO ASSESS THE 34 AND 50 KT WIND RADII
FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KTS
IS CONSISTENT WITH PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T4.0 (65 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY HOSTILE
WITH MARGINAL (27 CELSIUS), COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST)
AND HIGH (25-30 KTS) VWS OVERCOMING EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW TO
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TC 17S WILL
TRACK AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
ADDITIONALLY, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST IS CONTRIBUTING TO
THE HIGH VWS AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT
WILL STEADILY WEAKEN THE CYCLONE, BRINGING THE INTENSITY TO 35 KTS
BY TAU 72. BY TAU 36, EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) WILL BEGIN,
WITH COMPLETION EXPECTED BY TAU 48. THE FORECAST IS EXTENDED TO TAU
72 TO SHOW THE SYSTEM RECURVING SOUTHEASTWARD. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK,
WHICH IS PLACED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z.//
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Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Jeudi 7 Mars 2019 à 13:43