09UTC: TC 24S is forecast to intensify rapidly next 48hours, potential threat to the Comoros


Warning 2/JTWC


WARNING 2/JTWC
WARNING 2/JTWC
https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.meteo974.re/
TC 24S
As of 06:00 UTC Apr 23, 2019:

Location: 10.3°S 49.8°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure:  mb
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 10.4S 49.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (TWENTYFOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 727 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP
SYMMETRICALLY AROUND A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND FORMING THE
EARLY STAGES OF A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 230545Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS
SHOWING AN AREA OF 35 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT.
TOGETHER WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5 FROM PGTW AND KNES, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KNOTS. TC 24S IS CURRENTLY IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS),
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS), AND GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH, FOLLOWED BY LANDFALL IN MOZAMBIQUE IN APPROXIMATELY 72 HOURS.
GLOBAL DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU
48, WITH THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE CONSENSUS,
THE GFS TOWARD THE CENTER, AND THE NAVGEM BEING THE SOUTHERNMOST
OUTLIER. BEYOND TAU 48 TO 72, THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH
THE ECMWF, GFS, AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE TURNING THE SYSTEM TO THE
NORTH AFTER LANDFALL, WHEREAS THE REST OF THE MODELS TURN THE SYSTEM
TO THE SOUTH. THE OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT OF
CONSENSUS AND GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE ECMWF AND GFS TRACK, WITH A
SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION AROUND LANDFALL. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ALONG THE PROJECTED TRACK OF TC 24S,
TOGETHER WITH THE CURRENT STATE OF CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION, THE
INTENSITY FORECAST WAS RAISED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE LAST WARNING.
A PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO BE REACHED BY TAU 48. A
PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS ALSO LIKELY, SUGGESTING THAT THE
PEAK INTENSITY COULD POTENTIALLY BE EXCEEDED IN THE HOURS PRIOR TO
LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z.//
NNNN
 

FORECAST CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH TO THE COMOROS
FORECAST CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH TO THE COMOROS

0930UTC GOMS-2
0930UTC GOMS-2

0611UTC
0611UTC


HWRF AT 00UTC: 121KT AT +54H
HWRF AT 00UTC: 121KT AT +54H


Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mardi 23 Avril 2019 à 15:43