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09UTC: Cyclone SAVANNAH(19S) is now an intense cyclone, category 3 US right in the middle of the South Indian Ocean


Warning 14/JTWC


09UTC GOMS-2
09UTC GOMS-2
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
TC SAVANNAH(19S)
As of 06:00 UTC Mar 17, 2019:

Location: 16.3°S 91.0°E
Maximum Winds: 100 kt ( 185km/h)
Gusts: 125kt ( 230km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure:  mb

REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 16.4S 90.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (SAVANNAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER IMPROVED AS DEEP RAIN BANDS
WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A 10NM PINHOLE EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE, ADJUSTED FOR A
NORTHWARD TILT BY LINING UP WITH A WELL-DEFINED NEAR SURFACE
CIRCULATION IN THE 170329Z ASCAT DIRECT PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 100 KTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T5.5/102KTS FROM PGTW AND
KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, ALONG-TRACK
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT 27-28C ARE CONDUCIVE. TC 19S WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND DRY
COLD AIR INTRUSION WILL CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN TO 40 KTS BY TAU
120. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 72, AFTERWARD
THE MEMBERS SIGNIFICANTLY SPREAD OUT TO 200NM BY TAU 120. IN VIEW OF
THIS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP TO TAU
72, THEN LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 170600Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z, 172100Z, 180300Z
AND 180900Z.//
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0830UTC. COMPACT SYSTEM
0830UTC. COMPACT SYSTEM


08UTC
08UTC





Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Dimanche 17 Mars 2019 à 13:36