08S(DANILO) potential Fujiwhara with Invest 93S, Invest 97P under watch in the Gulf of Carpentaria, 02/03UTC update



TC 08S(DANILO): WARNING 2. THERE IS HIGH  UNCERTAINTY AND POTENTIAL FUJIWHARA WITH INVEST 93S LENDING LOW  CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST.
TC 08S(DANILO): WARNING 2. THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND POTENTIAL FUJIWHARA WITH INVEST 93S LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST.
2021 JAN 02 0240UTC #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
TC #08S #DANILO
WARNING 2
As of 00:00 UTC Jan 02, 2021:
Location: 10.8°S 72.0°E
Maximum Winds: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Gusts: 50 kt ( 95km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS .
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 10.8S 72.2E.
02JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
224 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS EXPANSIVE DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER AN OBSCURED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 020100Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LLCC POSITIONED ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST EDGE OF AN INTENSE DEEP CONVECTIVE BURST, WHICH SUPPORTS
THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS, HEDGED ABOVE PGTW/FMEE DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS), BASED ON RECENT ASCAT DATA. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND WARM SST (29C). HOWEVER, DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF INVEST
93S, APPROXIMATELY 512NM EAST-SOUTHEAST, EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW FROM
93S IS IMPINGING ON THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF TC 08S, WHICH IS
SHEARING CORE CONVECTION TO THE WEST. IN GENERAL, THERE IS HIGH
UNCERTAINTY AND POTENTIAL FUJIWHARA WITH INVEST 93S LENDING LOW
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE 01/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE STRIKE PROBABILITY GRAPHIC,
WHICH SHOWS A HIGH PROBABILITY SWATH SIMILAR TO THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST AND A LOW PROBABILITY SWATH EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE, SIMILARLY, SHOWS A BIFURCATION WITH HWRF, UK-MET
AND COAMPS-TC(GFS AND NAVGEM VERSIONS) SHOWING A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK
WHILE ECMWF, ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN, GFS, GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND UEMN
INDICATE A SOUTHWARD THEN WESTWARD TRACK FORECAST. THE JTWC FORECAST
FAVORS THE LATTER MODELS FOR THE FOLLOWING REASONS: INITIALLY THE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN-SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE THROUGH TAU 24-36; AFTER TAU 36, INVEST 93S
WILL APPROACH WITHIN 200NM AND THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL FUJIWHARA
(PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE) WITH TC 08S THE DOMINANT SYSTEM; INVEST
93S WILL GET ABSORBED INTO TC 08S BY TAU 72; AND AFTER TAU 72, THE
STR WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH ALLOWING TC 08S TO ACCELERATE WESTWARD.
THE COMPLEX TRACK SCENARIO WILL ALSO AFFECT THE INTENSITY FORECAST
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED THROUGH TAU 24 THEN
WEAKENING AS THE TWO SYSTEMS INTERACT AND MERGE. AFTER TAU 72,
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE WITH WARM SST (28-29C),
IMPROVED POLEWARD VENTING INTO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTH
AND LOW VWS--THIS SHOULD ALLOW TC 08S TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
020000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND
030300Z.//
NNNN
-----------------------------------------
INVEST #93S
UPDATE:
As of 00:00 UTC Jan 02, 2021:
Location: 14.6°S 79.8°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt ( 55km/h)
Gusts: 40 kt ( 75km/h)  
Minimum Central Pressure: 1001 mb
MEDIUM
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS .
ABIO10 PGTW 012200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.8S 81.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.7S 80.8E, APPROXIMATELY 662
NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 011935Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FLARING
CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 011543Z ASCAT-C PARTIAL PASS REVEALS SOME 25KT WINDS IN
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. INVEST 93S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (< 15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93S WILL TRACK GENERALLY
SOUTHWESTWARD WITH MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AND MAY BEGIN TO INTERACT AND BE ABSORBED BY INVEST 96S. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
----------------------------------------------
INVEST #97P #SOUTHPACIFICOCEAN #GULFOFCARPENTARIA
UPDATE:
As of 00:00 UTC Jan 02, 2021:
Location: 15.5°S 137.6°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb
LOW
ABPW10 PGTW 011500
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
14.8S 137.0E, APPROXIMATELY 161 NM NORTHWEST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND,
AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS
POCKETS OF FLARING CONVECTION BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE AROUND A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 010931Z SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE
IMAGE DEPCITS DISTINCT POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION PRIMARILY OVER
LAND. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES INVEST 97P IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, VERY WARM
(30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), AND LOW TO MODERATE (10-20
KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 97P WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA AS
IT CONSOLIDATES AND STRENGTHENS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
 

02/0245UTC. THERE IS ONLY A 950KM SEPARATION BETWEEN 08S AND 93S.
02/0245UTC. THERE IS ONLY A 950KM SEPARATION BETWEEN 08S AND 93S.

TC 08S: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TC 08S: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

INVEST 93S: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INVEST 93S: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

INVEST 97P: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INVEST 97P: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE IS RELATIVELY ACTIVE.
THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE IS RELATIVELY ACTIVE.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Samedi 2 Janvier 2021 à 07:23