06W(KHANUN) intensifying to Typhoon CAT 2 US within 36h approaching OKINAWA//Invest 96E//Invest 96L//300300utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS TS 06W(KHANUN).

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A MEDIUM-SIZED SYSTEM THAT CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AS THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) BECAME MORE ORGANIZED AND SYMMETRICAL WITH THE APPEARANCE OF A RAGGED FORMATIVE EYE. A DRY SLOT WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST PERSISTS; HOWEVER, RAIN BANDS, ALTHOUGH FRAGMENTED, ARE TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD AND FEEDING PERSISTENTLY INTO THE CDO. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE FORMATIVE EYE THAT LINED UP WELL WITH A RAGGED MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 292210Z SSMIS IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60KTS IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND THE AUTOMATED CIMSS D-PRINT DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE 6-HR STRUCTURAL IMPROVEMENT. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS, STRONG COMBINED OUTFLOW, AND WARM SST TEMPERED BY THE DRY AIR INTRUSION.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS KHANUN WILL CONTINUE ON A MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NER. AFTER TAU 36, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH WILL ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE THE SYSTEM ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY TOWARD OKINAWA, PASSING APPROXIMATELY 66 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE KADENA AB AROUND TAU 48 PRIOR TO DRIFTING INTO THE EAST CHINA SEA AND MAKING LANDFALL SOUTH OF SHANGHAI AROUND TAU 90. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AIDED BY INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS THE STEERING MECHANISM SWITCHES TO THE STR TO A PEAK OF 95KTS BY TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, SUBSIDENCE CAUSED BY A PASSING MID- LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL WEAKEN 06W TO 65 KTS AT TAU 96. AFTER LANDFALL, INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED CHINESE INTERIOR WILL MOSTLY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAPID EROSION, AND BY TAU 120, 06W WILL BE REDUCED TO 40 KTS, POSSIBLY WEAKER, AS IT TRACKS FURTHER INLAND.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL SPREAD TO A MERE 108 NM BY TAU 72 THEN TO 515 NM BY TAU 120 WITH AEMN AND GFS OFFERING A SHARP RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 72. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK UP TO TAU 72 THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD.