Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062023 230730 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.50    132.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     86.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     60.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.7  17.5  19.2  17.2  17.2  21.9  21.4  17.7  F  F  N  F  F  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   81.0  74.0  60.0  47.0  42.0  42.0  38.0  21.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   108.0  67.0  92.0 103.0 -62.0  25.0   0.0  46.0  F  N  F  F VU  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  78.0  77.0  77.0  72.0  75.0  75.0  74.0  F  F  F  F  N  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0  11.0   1.0   0.0   5.0   2.0  -1.0   9.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       41.5%       37.1%       39.3%
 25kt / 24h       74.4%       80.6%       77.5%
 30kt / 24h       60.4%       77.9%       69.1%
 35kt / 24h       58.0%       77.9%       67.9%
 40kt / 24h       27.6%       76.0%       51.8%
 45kt / 36h       48.6%       68.3%       58.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       51.8%       25.9%
 55kt / 48h       37.8%       50.1%       43.9%
 70kt / 48h       12.1%       25.8%       19.0%
 65kt / 72h       13.5%       26.6%       20.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.54

 WP062023 230730 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.50    132.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.7  17.5  19.2  17.2  17.2  21.9  21.4  17.7  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  78.0  77.0  77.0  72.0  75.0  75.0  74.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0  11.0   1.0   0.0   5.0   2.0  -1.0   9.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%