03UTC: amazing Typhoon WUTIP(02W) is a powerful category 4 US once again.


Warning 24/JTWC


02UTC
02UTC
Intensification carries on: at 03Z Dvorak is at 6.5 and Satcon at 123knots at 2316UTC. Looks like 02W is tapping into enhanced poleward and equatorward outflow. Shear is low. Due to is compactness the cyclone managed to swiftly benefit from the conditions to intensify above expectations.

2019 FEB 25 0245UTC WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC
TY #WUTIP #02W
This system is currently analysed as a 115knots TC, CAT4 US.
WARNING 24/JTWC
Click on the image to read the Remarks for Warning 24 and view sat pics and charts .
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS.
As of 00:00 UTC Feb 25, 2019:
Location: 13.4°N 140.4°E
Maximum Winds: 115 kt (215km/h)
Gusts: 140 kt (260km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 945 mb
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau

WDPN31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (WUTIP) WARNING NR
24//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 02W (WUTIP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM WEST OF NAVSTA
GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A THICK,
SYMMETRIC EYEWALL WITH DEEP CONVECTION, AND A WELL DEFINED EYE THAT
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 242126Z SSMIS
91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES A TIGHTENED MICROWAVE EYE SURROUNDED
BY AN INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC DEEP CONVECTIVE EYEWALL, AND DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 115 KNOTS BASED ON THE INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC EYEWALL
AND CONVECTION. THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
WERE RAISED TO T6.0 (115 KTS), SUPPORTING THE INITIAL INTENSITY. A
242126Z SATCON ESTIMATE AND THE RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATE ARE HIGHER, AT
T6.5 (127 KTS). UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH LOW (5
TO 10 KNOTS) SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND EXCELLENT
DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. SST VALUES REMAIN FAVORABLE AT 27C, ALTHOUGH
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) IS LOW. TY 02W IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. THROUGH TAU 36, AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST WILL CAUSE A BREAK IN THE STR AND ALLOW TY 02W TO MOVE TO
THE NORTHWEST. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT AND SLOW MOTION OVER LOW OHC WATERS. AFTER TAU 36, THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NORTHEAST ALLOWING AN
EXTENSION OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STR TO BUILD TO THE NORTH.
CONSEQUENTLY, 02W WILL TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND ACCELERATE. MORE
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS VWS INCREASES AND SST VALUES
DECREASE SLIGHTLY TO 26C. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT ON THE NORTHWESTWARD THEN MOSTLY WESTWARD TRACK, WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  
   C. AFTER TAU 72, INCREASING VWS (OVER 30 KTS) AND CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL (200MB) WESTERLIES OVER THE
SYSTEM AS WELL AS DRY, COLD AIR ENTRAINMENT ASSOCIATED WITH A
NORTHEAST SURGE EVENT WILL SERVE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 96. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT. GFS, HWRF, AND GALWEM ARE SOUTH OF AND MORE DUE WESTWARD
THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AT LATER TAUS, WHILE ECMWF AND NAVGEM
REMAIN NORTH OF THE MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS
PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS. OVERALL, THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST GIVEN THE DECREASING SPREAD IN
RECENT MODEL RUNS.//
NNNN


 



 

2348UTC
2348UTC

2114UTC: GOOD OUTFLOW
2114UTC: GOOD OUTFLOW

 


HWRF AT 18UTC: 112KT AT +0H
HWRF AT 18UTC: 112KT AT +0H

GFS AT 18UTC: 93KT AT +12H
GFS AT 18UTC: 93KT AT +12H


Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Lundi 25 Février 2019 à 06:52