03UTC: TREVOR(20P) category 1 US, intensifying rapidly over the Gulf of Carpentaria ,landfall forecast in 24h


WARNING 18/JTWC


WARNING 18/JTWC
WARNING 18/JTWC
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
TC TREVOR(20P)
As of 00:00 UTC Mar 22, 2019:

Location: 14.4°S 139.7°E
Maximum Winds: 75 kt (140km/h)
Gusts: 90 kt ( 170km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 975 mb
CATEGORY 1 US

REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 139.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TREVOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 383 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
RECENT ANIMATED COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY FROM AUSTRALIA, A 220000Z
SATELLITE POSITION FIX FROM PGTW AND A 220002Z METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE.
THE INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS SET BETWEEN SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND
AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65 KNOTS ON THE LOW END
(220000Z PGTW DVORAK) TO 87 KNOTS ON THE HIGH END (222103Z SATCON).
TC 20P IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING
STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOLLOWING THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT STEERING
RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH LANDFALL OCCURRING AROUND
TAU 24. TC 20P HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD DEEP
CONVECTION BUILDING NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND THE FIRST HINTS
OF A DEVELOPING EYE. RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN
THE NEAR-TERM GIVEN THE RECENT INTENSITY TREND, SUPPORTIVE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND ANTICIPATED PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER. PEAK
INTENSITY, EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN THE TAU 12 AND TAU 24 FORECAST
TIMES, MAY EXCEED 100 KNOTS. FOLLOWING LANDFALL, THE CYCLONE WILL
SLOWLY BUT STEADILY DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EXPECTED STORM TRACK, AND THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 23 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND 230300Z.//
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Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Vendredi 22 Mars 2019 à 06:26