03UTC: TC KENNETH(24S) powerful and compact cateogry 4 US, forecast to weaken slightly,landfall before 24h near Quiterajo/Mozambique


Warning 9/JTWC.


WARNING 9/JTWC
WARNING 9/JTWC
https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.meteo974.re/
TC KENNETH(24S)
As of 00:00 UTC Apr 25, 2019:

Location: 11.3°S 42.7°E
Maximum Winds: 115 kt ( 215km/h)
Gusts: 140 kt ( 260km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure:  mb
CATEGORY 4 US

REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 11.4S 42.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 44 NM
NORTHWEST OF COMOROS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A PERSISTENT PINHOLE EYE AND STRONG
CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYEWALL. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE EYE IN THE EIR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 115 KTS IS BASED ON THE 242345Z AUTOMATED DVORAK
TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T6.0 (115 KTS), IN AGREEMENT WITH THE FMEE
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T6.0, BUT BELOW THE PGTW AND
KNES ESTIMATES OF T6.5 (127 KTS). A 242231Z SATCON ESTIMATE IS 120
KTS. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THE COMPACT NATURE OF
THE SYSTEM. THE 250000Z OBSERVATION FROM HAHAYA INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT ON COMOROS ISLAND, 30 NM TO THE SOUTH, REPORTED A PEAK
SUSTAINED WIND OF 41 KTS AND LOWEST PRESSURE OF 998MB AT 242000Z.
THE 250000Z OBSERVATION HAS WEAKENED TO 26 KTS SUSTAINED WIND AND
1002MB. LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (29-30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, AND WELL-DEFINED WESTWARD AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ARE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IN
THE NEAR TERM. FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TC 24S WILL TRACK
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TC
24S IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT BEGINS TO FEEL
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS FROM LAND AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT WEAKENS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST HAS TC 24S DISSIPATING OVER LAND AFTER TAU 48.
HOWEVER, THE FLAT TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MOZAMBIQUE AND CONTINUED LOW
VWS MAY ALLOW THE CIRCULATION TO REMAIN ORGANIZED OVER LAND. A
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH AND CAUSE THE CURRENT
DOMINANT STEERING STR TO RE-ORIENT AND ALLOW ANOTHER STR TO BUILD IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST, BRINGING LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW THAT MAY PUSH THE REMNANTS OF TC 24S BACK OVER WATER AROUND TAU
96-120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN THE
NEAR TERM, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
GUIDANCE AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH SOME
MODELS LOOPING THEN RECURVING TC 24S TO THE NORTHEAST AND RE-
EMERGING OVER WATER, SOME MODELS MOVING TC 24S NORTHWARD BUT
REMAINING OVER LAND, AND UKMET AND GALWEM TURNING TC 24S TO THE
SOUTH BACK OVER WATER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS
25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z, 252100Z AND 260300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

FORECAST LANDFALL OVER MOZAMBIQUE NORTH OF QUISANGA NEAR QUITERAJO SHORTLY BEFORE 24H
FORECAST LANDFALL OVER MOZAMBIQUE NORTH OF QUISANGA NEAR QUITERAJO SHORTLY BEFORE 24H

WARNING 9/JTWC
WARNING 9/JTWC

04UTC
04UTC

03UTC
03UTC

03UTC
03UTC

2151UTC
2151UTC

Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Jeudi 25 Avril 2019 à 09:57