03UTC: TC HALEH(17S): slow moving and intensifying, possible peak at category 4 US in 72hours


Warning 4/JTWC


00UTC
00UTC
High confidence in the forecast track. Models spread at +120H is 460KM.

TC HALEH 17S
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
As of 00:00 UTC Mar 03, 2019:
Location: 14.2°S 73.8°E
Maximum Winds: 60 kt (110km/h)
Gusts: 75 kt (140km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 978 mb
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 73.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (HALEH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 433 NM SOUTH
OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT, FOR THE MOST PART, THE SYSTEM MAINTAINED ITS TC SIGNATURE WITH
EXPANSIVE RAIN BANDS WRAPPING IN MOSTLY FROM THE EQUATORWARD SIDE.
HOWEVER, THE EIR LOOP ALSO SHOWS SLIGHT DEEPENING OF THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE RAGGED BUT DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 022307Z
SSMIS 91GHZ COLORIZED IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AVERAGED FROM
THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5/55KTS FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES AND A
SATCON DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.8/62KTS AND REFLECTS THE SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
AND WARM (30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). TC 17S WILL CONTINUE
ON ITS CURRENT TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 36, THE STR WILL BUILD
WESTWARD AND DRIVE THE CYCLONE ON A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL FUEL RAPID INTENSIFICATION
UP TO 115KTS BY TAU 72. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS
WILL PROMOTE A RAPID WEAKENING AND, BY TAU 120, TC HALEH WILL BE DOWN
TO 75KTS. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MINIMAL
SPREADING UP TO 250NM BY TAU 120, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.//
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02UTC
02UTC

 

2308UTC
2308UTC

1643UTC
1643UTC

 


HWRF AT 18UTC: 123KT AT +78H
HWRF AT 18UTC: 123KT AT +78H

GFS AT 18UTC: 115KT AT +78H
GFS AT 18UTC: 115KT AT +78H


Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Dimanche 3 Mars 2019 à 06:33