03UTC: Mascarene islands: TC 22S has formed, intensifying rapidly next 48hours, could track very close to Rodrigues in 3 days


Warning 1/JTWC


WARNING 1/JTWC
WARNING 1/JTWC
TC 22S
As of 00:00 UTC Mar 22, 2019:

Location: 14.5°S 62.5°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt (65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb

REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 62.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 449 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF PERSISTENT
CONVECTION THAT HAS BEGUN TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND SUPPORTED BY A 220042Z 91GHZ
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND INTO A CENTRAL
LOW REFLECTIVITY AREA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON
THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ANALYSIS OF T2.5 (35 KTS) FROM PGTW. TC
22S IS FORECAST TO TRACK IN AN S-SHAPED CURVE. THE INITIAL SOUTHWARD
TRACK DIRECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH TAU 12, AFTER WHICH TC 22S WILL
TRACK BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TAU 48. BEYOND TAU 48 THE SYSTEM
WILL RECURVE AND TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST. THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE IS A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. OVERTIME, THE NER WILL TRANSIT TO THE
WEST, EVENTUALLY POSITIONING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM CAUSING
THE S-SHAPED TRACK. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK SHAPE HOWEVER, THERE ARE LARGE VARIATIONS
IN THE LOCATION OF THE TRACK, LEADING TO A TAU 120 SPREAD OF AROUND
400NM. DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE
THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND 230300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S
(VERONICA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 212130).//
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WARNING 1/JTWC
WARNING 1/JTWC

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Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Vendredi 22 Mars 2019 à 07:05