03UTC: JOANINHA(22S) top category 3 US tracking about 60/70km to the north-east of Rodrigues within the next 3/6hours


Warning 17/JTWC


WARNING 17/JTWC
WARNING 17/JTWC
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
TC JOANINHA(22S)
As of 00:00 UTC Mar 26, 2019:

Location: 19.1°S 63.7°E
Maximum Winds: 110 kt (205km/h)
Gusts: 135 kt ( 250km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 941 mb
CATEGORY 3 US  INTENSIFYING

REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 63.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 39 NM
EAST OF PORT MATHURIN, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER INTENSIFIED AS RAIN BANDS
WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A MORE COMPACT AND SYMMETRIC CENTRAL CONVECTION
WITH A DEFINED 20-NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE, ADJUSTED FOR TILT BY LINING UP WITH A
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 252237Z SSMIS NEAR-SURFACE 37GHZ PASS.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110KTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
T5.5/102KTS TO T6.0/115KTS FROM KNES AND PGTW, RESPECTIVELY. TC 22S
IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW
(10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF AN EXTENSION OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER
TAU 48, THE TC WILL TURN SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE SOUTHEAST ASSUMES STEERING. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
PROMOTE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 120KTS BY TAU 24.
AFTERWARD, IT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN MAINLY DUE TO INCREASING VWS.
AROUND TAU 96, IT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AS
IT APPROACHES THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. NUMERICAL MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY
DIVERGE TO OVER 650NM BY TAU 120, OFFERING VARYING SOLUTIONS RELATIVE
TO THE TRANSITION IN STEERING MECHANISMS WITH ECMWF ON THE EXTREME
RIGHT AND AFUM ON THE LEFT MARGIN OF THE ENVELOPE. IN VIEW OF THIS,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
260900Z, 261500Z, 262100Z AND 270300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S
(VERONICA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR FINAL WARNING.//
NNNN
 

04UTC
04UTC



Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mardi 26 Mars 2019 à 09:55