03UTC: JOANINHA(22S) slow-moving and expected to intensify rapidly next 24hours, slowly approaching Rodrigues


Warning 5/JTWC


0156UTC
0156UTC
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
TC JOANINHA(22S)
As of 00:00 UTC Mar 23, 2019:

Location: 16.0°S 62.3°E
Maximum Winds: 55 kt (100km/h)
Gusts: 70 kt ( 130km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 mb

REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 62.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 377 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVING CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 222351Z 37 GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI)
ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM FMEE AND AN ADT CI OF T3.6 (57
KNOTS). TC 22S IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO
10 KNOTS) AND HAS EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 29 DEGREES CELSIUS AND ARE ALSO
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. A COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TC 22S TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, REACHING AN INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS
BY TAU 24. THE 222351Z 37 GHZ COLOR MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS A
CYAN RING, AN INDICATOR OF POSSIBLE RAPID INTENSIFICATION. TC 22S IS
SLOWLY TRACKING SOUTHWARD WHILE POSITIONED BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
SOUTHWEST. TC 22S WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24. BEYOND
TAU 24, THE NER WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE AND ALLOW
TC 22S TO TRACK SOUTHWARD AND THEN ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 12, HOWEVER,
GUIDANCE SHARPLY DIVERGES AFTER THAT. BY TAU 72 THE MODEL SPREAD IS
NEARLY 290 NM AND BY TAU 120 THE SPREAD IS 380 NM. DUE TO THE WIDE
SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 22
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
 

WARNING 5/JTWC
WARNING 5/JTWC

WARNING 5/JTWC
WARNING 5/JTWC

0156UTC
0156UTC



Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Samedi 23 Mars 2019 à 07:53