03UTC: HALEH(17S) : Final Warning from the JTWC


Warning 28/JTWC


03UTC
03UTC
TC HALEH 17S
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
As of 00:00 UTC Mar 09, 2019:
Location: 35.3°S 65.0°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt (65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt (85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 mb
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 35.9S 65.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (HALEH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 999 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 17
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FROM THE ANIMATED IMAGERY
AND A 090008Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THERE IS POOR CONFIDENCE
IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS, FROM A PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS) DUE TO LACK OF AVAILABLE DATA. TC 17S IS
SHOWING SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS THE STRONGEST WINDS AND
CONVECTION ARE SIGNIFICANTLY DISPLACED FROM THE CENTER. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS UNFAVORABLE WITH COOL (22-24 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, HIGH (20-25 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND A
DIMINISHING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. TC 17S IS ON THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND WILL TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z
IS 31 FEET.//
NNNN
JMV FILE/JTWC
1719022818  92S 780E  20
1719030100  97S 778E  25
1719030106 100S 769E  25
1719030112 104S 763E  25
1719030118 108S 757E  30
1719030200 114S 754E  30
1719030206 120S 749E  40
1719030212 125S 742E  45
1719030218 132S 740E  55
1719030300 139S 737E  60
1719030306 146S 736E  65
1719030312 156S 737E  70
1719030318 163S 735E  75
1719030400 171S 733E  90
1719030406 180S 730E 105
1719030412 187S 726E 105
1719030418 191S 725E 115
1719030500 196S 724E 110
1719030506 204S 722E 100
1719030512 211S 717E  95
1719030518 217S 714E  90
1719030600 223S 709E  85
1719030606 230S 700E  80
1719030612 236S 691E  75
1719030618 243S 685E  75
1719030700 251S 681E  70
1719030706 260S 677E  65
1719030712 270S 673E  60
1719030718 283S 669E  55
1719030800 296S 662E  45
1719030806 310S 660E  45
1719030812 322S 656E  40
1719030818 336S 653E  40
1719030900 353S 650E  35
NNNN



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Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Samedi 9 Mars 2019 à 07:25