03UTC: Cyclone POLA(16P): Category 1 US , peaking within 24hours and tracking to the west of Nuku 'alofa


Warning 5/JTWC


02UTC
02UTC
TC 16P has intensified faster than indicated by the models taping into strong poleward outflow.
https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
2019 FEB 26 0225UTC SOUTH PACIFIC
TC #16P
This system is currently analysed as a 65knots TC, CAT1 US.
WARNING 5/JTWC
Click on the image to read the Remarks for the Warning 5 and view sat pics and charts .
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS.
As of 00:00 UTC Feb 27, 2019:
Location: 19.3°S 176.9°W
Maximum Winds: 65 kt (120km/h)
Gusts: 80 kt ( 150km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 978 mb
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau

REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 177.1W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (POLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 277 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED AN EYE IN THE LAST SIX HOURS THAT HAS
SINCE FILLED INTO A DIMPLE FEATURE. THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS
FURTHER DEEPENED AND CONSOLIDATED AS RAIN BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON THE CLOUD-FILLED EYE, ADJUSTED FOR TILT, AND LINED UP
WITH A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 262046Z AMSU IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.0/65KTS FROM ALL
REPORTING AGENCIES. TC 16P IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AT 29-30 CELSIUS ARE ALSO FAVORABLE.
THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. BY TAU 48, IT WILL ROUND
THE STR AXIS AND ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD. THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
WILL PROMOTE MORE INTENSIFICATION UP TO 70 KNOTS BUT BY TAU 48,
INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL TRIGGER A GRADUAL WEAKENING.
CONCURRENTLY, BY TAU 36, TC POLA WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
AND BY TAU 72, WILL BECOME A STRONG STORM-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH A
LARGE CORE AND AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 270900Z, 271500Z, 272100Z AND 280300Z.//
NNNN



02UTC
02UTC

2013UTC
2013UTC


HWRF AT 18UTC: 68KT AT +78H
HWRF AT 18UTC: 68KT AT +78H

GFS AT 18UTC: 67KT AT +36H
GFS AT 18UTC: 67KT AT +36H
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mercredi 27 Février 2019 à 06:36