Western Pacific:Super Typhoon 20W(MINDULLE) is the 3rd CAT 5 of the season//North Indian:TC 03B making landfall within 24h,Atlantic:18L(SAM)near Super Hurricane strength,26/03utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLEINTS ON BOTH 20W AND 03B.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING, HOWEVER, FROM O TO 72H FORECAST POSITS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SLOWER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE OBSERVED REDUCTION IN FORWARD TRACK SPEED. FORECAST DISCUSSION: SUPER TYPHOON 20W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 36H. TRACK SPEEDS DURING THIS TIME ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLOW DUE TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE(STR) OVER CHINA IMPEDING FORWARD MOTION. BEGINNING AFTER 36H, THIS STR IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SETTLE TO ITS SOUTHWEST, WHILE THE RIDGING TO THE EAST WILL BUILD IN, RESULTING IN A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK. BEYOND 72H, MINDULLE WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT BECOMES WEDGED BETWEEN AN ADVANCING TROUGH OVER JAPAN AND THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING TO THE EAST. THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE PATTERN OF THE STR MEANS THAT 20W MAY HAVE A GRADUAL EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR ETT TO BEGIN AT 120H. THE SYSTEM LIKELY HAS ABOUT ANOTHER 12 TO 24 HOURS LEFT TO SUPPORT SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY BEFORE UPWELLING, COMBINED WITH SLOW FORWARD MOTION AND COOLING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES, BEGINS A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. THIS FORECAST DOES NOT ACCOUNT FOR ANY POTENTIAL EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE(S), WHICH ARE A POSSIBILITY, BUT NOT OBSERVED AT THIS TIME. BEYOND 72H, WEAKENING SHOULD BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED AS 20W ENCOUNTERS DECREASED OUTFLOW ALOFT AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL SHEAR. THE PRIMARY MODEL GROUPING AND NEARLY ALL MEMBERS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES KEEPS THE CENTER OF THE TRACK EAST OF JAPAN. EVEN SO, THE EXPANSIVE 35 KNOT WIND FIELD COVERS MUCH OF EASTERN HONSHU, WITH STORM FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN IMPRESSIVE DEEPENING OF THE CENTRAL CORE, WITH A WELL-FORMED 11 DEGREE CELSIUS EYE, THAT IS NOW DOWN TO 28 KM DIAMETER. A SENTINEL-1 SAR PASS AT 252048Z PROVIDED EXCEPTIONAL DETAIL OF THE ENTIRE EXPANSE OF MINDULLES WIND FIELD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AGENCY EYE FIXES AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SAR. THE PRIOR INTENSITY WAS REVISED UPWARDS TO 115 KNOTS, AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 140 KNOTS. THIS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T6.5 TO T7.0, WHICH ALIGNS WITH THE NESDIS STAR FIX PRODUCT BASED ON THE SENTINEL-1 DATA. SATCON AND ADT ESTIMATES ARE STILL LAGGING BEHIND, BUT BEGINNING TO CATCH UP AT 105 KNOTS AND 110 KNOTS, RESPECTIVELY. THE FOUR-QUADRANT 34, 50, AND 64 KNOT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THE SAR DATA.

MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN MODERATELY GOOD AGREEMENT, BOTH IN ALONG AND CROSS TRACK SPREAD. THE FIVE-DAY SPREAD IS 460 KM. THE FORECAST TRACK IS THEREFORE PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. UNLIKE TRACK, MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE INTENSITY, PARTIALLY BECAUSE THE ANALYZED WINDS ARE TOO WEAK. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THEREFORE PLACED HIGHER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING PRIMARILY WESTWARD THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXTENSION OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE INDIAN COASTLINE NORTH OF VISHAKHAPATNAM AROUND 18H. THE STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL, HOWEVER, THE MODERATE OUTFLOW AND WARM SSTS MAY ALLOW 03B TO MAINTAIN ITS TROPICAL STORM STATUS AS IT MAKES LANDFALL. ONCE ASHORE, THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN TO THE NORTHWEST OF VISHAKHAPATNAM, ALTHOUGH, SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING THE REMNANT ENERGY MAY TRACK ACROSS THE CONTINENT AND RE-EMERGE OVER THE ARABIAN SEA SEVERAL DAYS LATER.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: THE FIRST FEW FRAMES OF ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE WEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS PLACED BASED ON PGTW FIX, AND SUPPORTED BY A 252312Z SSMIS PASS REVEALING THE LOW LEVEL CURVED BANDING AS WELL AS AN EARLIER 252258Z NIGHTIME VISIBLE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS HELD AT 40 KNOTS, WHICH IS ABOVE T2.5 (35 KNOT) DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM DEMS AND PGTW, AND MAY BE GENEROUS GIVEN THE NOW-AVAILABLE MSI.

MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UK MET GLOBAL MODEL WITH IS A SOUTHERN OUTLIER. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS SHORT FORECAST.

CURRENT INTENSITY IS 125KNOTS/CAT 4 AND IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT 130KNOTS "SUPER HURRICANE" AT 26/12UTC.

HU 18L(SAM). TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

SYSTEM WAS ANALYSED AS SUBTROPICAL.

19L(TERESA). TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

26/0530UTC.