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Western Pacific: 18W(CONSON) tracking over Southern Luzon,19W(CHANTHU) forecast to reach Super Typhoon intensity within 24hours,15E & 12L(LARRY) updates,08/03utc




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TS 18W(CONSON). WARNING 9 ISSUED AT 08/03UTC.THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 18W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TO 50 KNOTS AS IT TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD OVER SOUTHERN LUZON. AFTER 24H, THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD HAINAN ISLAND. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT WEAK INTERACTION AND POSSIBLY MINOR TRACK CHANGES MAY OCCUR AFTER 48H AS TS 18W CLOSES WITHIN ABOUT 900KM OF TY 19W AT 60H.
TS 18W(CONSON). WARNING 9 ISSUED AT 08/03UTC.THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 18W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TO 50 KNOTS AS IT TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD OVER SOUTHERN LUZON. AFTER 24H, THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD HAINAN ISLAND. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT WEAK INTERACTION AND POSSIBLY MINOR TRACK CHANGES MAY OCCUR AFTER 48H AS TS 18W CLOSES WITHIN ABOUT 900KM OF TY 19W AT 60H.
1821090412 110N1319E  15
1821090418 111N1315E  15
1821090500 110N1310E  15
1821090506 108N1305E  15
1821090512 104N1296E  30
1821090518 102N1285E  40
1821090600 105N1275E  50
1821090606 108N1268E  60
1821090612 112N1259E  65
1821090618 115N1249E  60
1821090700 119N1243E  55
1821090706 125N1233E  50
1821090712 130N1228E  55
1821090718 133N1220E  55
1821090800 136N1213E  55
NNNN
 

Western Pacific: 18W(CONSON) tracking over Southern Luzon,19W(CHANTHU) forecast to reach Super Typhoon intensity within 24hours,15E & 12L(LARRY) updates,08/03utc


TS 18W(CONSON). SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TS 18W HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEGRADATION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. IN FACT, A 072216Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH A COMPACT CORE SURROUNDING A DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. HOWEVER, OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER SOUTHERN LUZON. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF RJTD, RCTP AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES, CONSISTENT WITH THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE OUTFLOW CONDITIONS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
TS 18W(CONSON). SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TS 18W HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEGRADATION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. IN FACT, A 072216Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH A COMPACT CORE SURROUNDING A DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. HOWEVER, OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER SOUTHERN LUZON. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF RJTD, RCTP AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES, CONSISTENT WITH THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE OUTFLOW CONDITIONS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.


TS 18W(CONSON). MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH IS INDICATING BINARY INTERACTION WITH TY 19W AND TRACKING QUICKLY POLEWARD AND MERGING, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH 72H. THEREFORE, THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 72H. AFTER 72H, THE NUMERICAL MODELS DIVERGE WITH A LARGE SPREAD (490KM AT 120H) IN SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM A WESTWARD TRACK TOWARD DA NANG TO A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER HAINAN ISLAND LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE IS ALSO SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IN THE EARLY PERIOD DUE TO LAND INTERACTION, AND IN THE LATER PERIOD DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AS A SIDE NOTE, THE 061200Z BEST TRACK POSITION WAS REANALYZED TO TYPHOON STRENGTH (65 KNOTS) BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM GUIUAN, PHILIPPINES. THE 061300Z REPORT INDICATED WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 62 KNOTS AT AN ELEVATION OF 60M.
TS 18W(CONSON). MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH IS INDICATING BINARY INTERACTION WITH TY 19W AND TRACKING QUICKLY POLEWARD AND MERGING, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH 72H. THEREFORE, THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 72H. AFTER 72H, THE NUMERICAL MODELS DIVERGE WITH A LARGE SPREAD (490KM AT 120H) IN SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM A WESTWARD TRACK TOWARD DA NANG TO A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER HAINAN ISLAND LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE IS ALSO SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IN THE EARLY PERIOD DUE TO LAND INTERACTION, AND IN THE LATER PERIOD DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AS A SIDE NOTE, THE 061200Z BEST TRACK POSITION WAS REANALYZED TO TYPHOON STRENGTH (65 KNOTS) BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM GUIUAN, PHILIPPINES. THE 061300Z REPORT INDICATED WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 62 KNOTS AT AN ELEVATION OF 60M.


TY 19W(CHANTHU). WARNING 8 ISSUED AT 08/03UTC.SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 19W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 48H UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE(STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH. TY 19W WILL INTENSIFY TO SUPERTYPHOON (STY) STRENGTH (PEAK 135 KNOTS/CAT 4) BY 12H AND WILL MAINTAIN STY INTENSITY THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOMEWHAT ERRATIC INTENSITIES THROUGH 72H. AFTER 72H, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR WHILE WEAKENING STEADILY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ZONAL OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA WITH NO DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE THUS RECURVATURE IS ASSESSED AS UNLIKELY.
TY 19W(CHANTHU). WARNING 8 ISSUED AT 08/03UTC.SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 19W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 48H UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE(STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH. TY 19W WILL INTENSIFY TO SUPERTYPHOON (STY) STRENGTH (PEAK 135 KNOTS/CAT 4) BY 12H AND WILL MAINTAIN STY INTENSITY THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOMEWHAT ERRATIC INTENSITIES THROUGH 72H. AFTER 72H, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR WHILE WEAKENING STEADILY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ZONAL OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA WITH NO DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE THUS RECURVATURE IS ASSESSED AS UNLIKELY.
1921090506 123N1397E  15
1921090512 126N1395E  20
1921090518 130N1389E  20
1921090600 135N1385E  20
1921090606 141N1382E  25
1921090612 148N1379E  35
1921090618 152N1373E  45
1921090700 156N1366E  50
1921090706 161N1357E  70
1921090712 163N1346E  95
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090800 160N1323E 120
NNNN

Western Pacific: 18W(CONSON) tracking over Southern Luzon,19W(CHANTHU) forecast to reach Super Typhoon intensity within 24hours,15E & 12L(LARRY) updates,08/03utc

TY 19W(CHANTHU). SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT, SYMMETRIC CORE OF INTENSE CONVECTION SURROUNDING A 9-KM PINHOLE EYE. OBJECTIVE ADT ESTIMATES ARE NOT HANDLING THE INTENSITY WELL DUE TO THE PINHOLE EYE AND ARE VASTLY UNDERESTIMATING THE INITIAL INTENSITY. EIR ALSO INDICATES TROCHOIDAL MOTION (WOBBLE) AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS GENERALLY WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE VERY FAVORABLE WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES ARE CONDUCIVE AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES ARE VERY HIGH SUPPORTING THE RECENT EXTREME RAPID INTENSIFICATION EVENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PINHOLE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 120 KTS/CAT 4 IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW, RCTP AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES.
TY 19W(CHANTHU). SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT, SYMMETRIC CORE OF INTENSE CONVECTION SURROUNDING A 9-KM PINHOLE EYE. OBJECTIVE ADT ESTIMATES ARE NOT HANDLING THE INTENSITY WELL DUE TO THE PINHOLE EYE AND ARE VASTLY UNDERESTIMATING THE INITIAL INTENSITY. EIR ALSO INDICATES TROCHOIDAL MOTION (WOBBLE) AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS GENERALLY WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE VERY FAVORABLE WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES ARE CONDUCIVE AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES ARE VERY HIGH SUPPORTING THE RECENT EXTREME RAPID INTENSIFICATION EVENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PINHOLE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 120 KTS/CAT 4 IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW, RCTP AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES.

TY 19W(CHANTHU).MODEL DISCUSSION: THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THROUGH 72H WITH A 150KM TO 240KM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS FROM 48H TO 60H. JGSM IS THE LONE OUTLIER WITH A MORE POLEWARD, UNREALISTIC TRACK OVER NORTHERN TAIWAN INTO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AFTER 72H, THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK, HOWEVER, THE BULK OF THE DETERMINISTIC AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS INDICATE A HIGH PROBABILITY TRACK OVER OR SOUTH OF TAIWAN. INTENSITY GUIDANCE, IN GENERAL, HAS STRUGGLED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND CONTINUES TO INDICATE A LARGE SPREAD IN INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED HIGHER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS (ICNW). THE LIKELIHOOD OF BINARY INTERACTION WITH TS 18W REMAINS LOW AS THE TWO SYSTEMS CLOSE WITHIN 900KM AT 60H, WHICH IS BORDERLINE AND UNLIKELY DUE TO THE COMPACT NATURE OF EACH SYSTEM.
TY 19W(CHANTHU).MODEL DISCUSSION: THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THROUGH 72H WITH A 150KM TO 240KM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS FROM 48H TO 60H. JGSM IS THE LONE OUTLIER WITH A MORE POLEWARD, UNREALISTIC TRACK OVER NORTHERN TAIWAN INTO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AFTER 72H, THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK, HOWEVER, THE BULK OF THE DETERMINISTIC AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS INDICATE A HIGH PROBABILITY TRACK OVER OR SOUTH OF TAIWAN. INTENSITY GUIDANCE, IN GENERAL, HAS STRUGGLED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND CONTINUES TO INDICATE A LARGE SPREAD IN INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED HIGHER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS (ICNW). THE LIKELIHOOD OF BINARY INTERACTION WITH TS 18W REMAINS LOW AS THE TWO SYSTEMS CLOSE WITHIN 900KM AT 60H, WHICH IS BORDERLINE AND UNLIKELY DUE TO THE COMPACT NATURE OF EACH SYSTEM.


TY 19W(CHANTHU). HWRF AT 07/18UTC. INTENSITY GUIDANCE: 144KNOTS AT +12H.
TY 19W(CHANTHU). HWRF AT 07/18UTC. INTENSITY GUIDANCE: 144KNOTS AT +12H.


08/00UTC.
08/00UTC.

 

EASTERN PACIFIC. TD 15E. WARNING 2 ISSUED AT 08/04UTC. CURRENT INTENSITY IS 30KNOTS AND IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT 65KNOTS/CAT 1 BY 10/00UTC.
EASTERN PACIFIC. TD 15E. WARNING 2 ISSUED AT 08/04UTC. CURRENT INTENSITY IS 30KNOTS AND IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT 65KNOTS/CAT 1 BY 10/00UTC.
1521090412 126N 993W  20
1521090418 130N1000W  20
1521090500 134N1007W  20
1521090506 138N1014W  20
1521090512 144N1021W  20
1521090518 150N1028W  20
1521090600 157N1034W  25
1521090606 162N1042W  25
1521090612 167N1051W  25
1521090618 170N1058W  25
1521090700 174N1063W  25
1521090706 177N1068W  25
1521090712 179N1073W  30
1521090718 181N1078W  30
1521090800 181N1073W  30
NNNN

TD 15E. GUIDANCE.
TD 15E. GUIDANCE.

08/00UTC.
08/00UTC.


ATLANTIC. HU 12L(LARRY). WARNING 30 ISSUED AT 08/03UTC. CURRENT INTENSITY IS 100KNOTS/CAT 3 AND IS FORECAST TO DECREASE TO 85KNOTS/CAT 2 BY 10/12UTC AND 50KNOTS BY 13/00UTC.
ATLANTIC. HU 12L(LARRY). WARNING 30 ISSUED AT 08/03UTC. CURRENT INTENSITY IS 100KNOTS/CAT 3 AND IS FORECAST TO DECREASE TO 85KNOTS/CAT 2 BY 10/12UTC AND 50KNOTS BY 13/00UTC.
1221083000  82N 115W  15
1221083006  82N 127W  20
1221083012  82N 139W  20
1221083018  83N 151W  25
1221083100  86N 163W  25
1221083106  96N 175W  30
1221083112 105N 190W  30
1221083118 112N 206W  30
1221090100 119N 225W  35
1221090106 122N 245W  40
1221090112 124N 265W  45
1221090118 125N 284W  55
1221090200 127N 300W  60
1221090206 130N 316W  65
1221090212 133N 333W  70
1221090218 136N 350W  70
1221090300 139N 367W  75
1221090306 141N 384W  80
1221090312 144N 400W  80
1221090318 147N 414W  85
1221090400 152N 427W 100
1221090406 158N 440W 105
1221090412 164N 453W 110
1221090418 170N 465W 110
1221090500 177N 475W 105
1221090506 184N 485W 105
1221090512 191N 493W 110
1221090518 201N 502W 110
1221090600 207N 510W 110
1221090606 214N 519W 105
1221090612 218N 526W 105
1221090618 222N 535W 110
1221090700 227N 542W 110
1221090706 233N 548W 105
1221090712 240N 554W 100
1221090718 247N 560W 100
1221090800 254N 565W 100
 

HU 12L(LARRY). GUIDANCE.
HU 12L(LARRY). GUIDANCE.

JTWC ARE ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON 18W AND 19W.
JTWC ARE ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON 18W AND 19W.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Wednesday, September 8th 2021 à 08:30
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